The Iowa caucuses are only a little over a week away, the New Hampshire primaries just under two weeks as the seemingly interminable 2008 primary election campaign lurches to an end. Will the February 5 20 state primaries with a whopping 2,075 delegates at stake make it all over but the shouting? Let’s consider a few scenarios.
The likely scenario—Democrats
Here’s what I think the the likely scenario is. Under this scenario Hillary Clinton’s support in Iowa is being seriously underestimated (the evidence for that is beginning to mount). She wins Iowa decisively and follows up with an even more decisive victory in New Hampshire. Both Edwards and Obama look even less electable following the two early losses and that propels Sen. Clinton into her party’s nomination on February 5. What has all the hub-bub been about?
The likely scenario—Republicans
Huckabee wins Iowa. New Hampshire Republicans, concerned about a Huckabee candidacy, consolidate around Romney who wins the New Hampshire primary. Regular Republicans follow suit in subsequent primaries and Romney becomes the Republican candidate.
Who wins in a Clinton-Romney match-up? Hard to pick but I think Hillary Clinton due to Romney’s difficulties with the social conservative part of the Republican base.
Democrats: the Edwards scenario
Due to superior support among union members and other experienced caucus voters, Edwards’s support in Iowa is being seriously underestimated. Edwards wins Iowa. Clinton, her aura of invincibility weakened, squeaks out a narrow victory in New Hampshire which further weakens the idea of the inevitability of her candidacy. Edwards’s victory in Iowa legitimizes him as an electable candidate, Democratic primary voters who really prefer his populist message to either Clinton’s wonk message or Obama’s “message of hope”, move towards Edwards as both electable and appealing. Edwards wins big on Super Tuesday.
Democrats: the Obama scenario
Obama wins Iowa, weakening Clinton’s aura of invincibility. Democrats begin to move towards Obama. Clinton narrowly wins New Hampshire. The absence of Michigan’s and Florida’s delegates, both of which tend to favor either Clinton or Edwards, strengthens Obama’s hand. Obama wins South Carolina and pulls out a narrow victory on February 5.
Republicans: the McCain scenario
Huckabee wins Iowa. This shakes support for Romney who’s spent so much time and money there. Republicans move to McCain as their best hope for retaining the White House and McCain wins in New Hampshire (there’s some evidence that this is happening). Huckabee, McCain, and a weakened Romney continue to contend through February 5, Republicans swallow their anger at McCain and McCain ekes out a narrow victory on February 5.
Republicans: the Huckabee scenario
Huckabee wins Iowa. Romney edges out a narrow victory in New Hampshire and Republicans who oppose a Huckabee candidacy split their votes between Romney and McCain in subsequent primaries. The heavy front-loading of the primaries strengthens the position of the 40% of Republicans who are social conservatives, giving Huckabee the edge he needs to eke out a narrow victory.
Who wins in the general election? Beats me. I think that McCain is strongest against all Democrats and Huckabee weakest. My gut feeling is that Romney probably can’t defeat either Clinton or Obama. He may not be able to defeat Edwards either although I think it might be close since they have some of the same weaknesses.
Alternative scenarios welcome although be warned that I think that suggesting that any candidate who’s polling at or below 6% can win either the primaries or the general election is delusional.