I've got to say that I really didn't expect this.
SurveyUSA. 6/21-23. Likely voters. MoE 4% (2/26-28 results)
McCain (R) 47 (50)
Obama (D) 48 (41)
Let's definitely take a look at the internals:
6/23 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other Whi Bla
McCain 47 50 44 80 19 42 51 14
Obama 48 45 51 16 78 49 44 84
2/28 Total Men Wom GOP Dem Other Whi Bla
McCain 50 51 48 75 20 58 54 4
Obama 41 39 43 19 71 30 37 88
Democratic and independent women are trending Obama. He made a solid 35-point gain among independents and decent 8-point gain among Democrats. Both candidates have nearly equal support among their base, leaving the decision up to independents. If Obama can hold on to them, we'll see Indiana turn Blue. Still hard to believe, but the numbers have consistently suggested a closer race than you'd expect from a state Bush won 60-39 in 2004.
The small subsample size of the racial breakdown (blacks are 7 percent of the sample) means we get ridiculous results like McCain getting 14 percent of the black vote. He won't, obviously.
