As has been my practice I made some predictions for 2006. Some were right; some wrong; some spectactularly wrong. Here’s how I did:
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The major accomplishment of the new Democratically-controlled Congress will be an increase in the minimum wage |
Credit where credit is due: they also enacted an increase in CAFE standards but the major accomplishment was an increase in the minimum wage. |
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There will be no major Social Security, Medicare, or immigration reform |
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The Congress won’t be able to resist conducting investigations of the last six years of the Bush Administration |
I’ve been impressed at how restrained the new Congress has been but I think there’s been enough investigation that this qualifies as a correct prediction. |
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Neither the U. S. nor Israel will bomb or invade Iran |
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The number of U. S. forces in Iraq will not go below 100,000 |
I wish I’d raised the ante on the bets I’d made on this one. If I had, I’d be wealthy man today. |
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The surge in Iraq won’t accomplish much |
Like practically everybody else I underestimated how fast the situation in Iraq could change. I don’t believe that it’s possible to disaggregate the effects of the surge, the “Sunni awakening”, ethnic cleansing, just plain fatigue, and who knows what all else but I think some credit is undoubtedly due to the surge itself. |
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Either Iran or North Korea (maybe both) will test a nuclear weapon (or fake such a test). Not much will be done about it. |
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There will be a major terrorist attack in Europe. Mostly likely target: Britain |
Do the abortive car bomb attacks last summer count? I’m giving myself half-credit for this one. |
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China (whose diplomacy has been excellent for a long time) will stumble |
China has stumbled but in an unexpected way. Product defect issues has shaken confidence in Chinese imports. |
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Windows Vista won’t live up to either sales or technical expectations. It will catch on anyway once SP1 has been released. |
Microsoft’s problems with Vista have probably just begun. I continue to suspect that it will dominate. |
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There will be a technological breakthrough that will gain critical mass. Possibly electric cars. Possibly a battery technology. |
I’m disappointed that this prediction looks like it has failed. |
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As people bear more costs for their own healthcare pressure will increase for reform. Not much will happen. |
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Barack Obama’s repute will peak. |
There are some signs that this prediction has proved correct i.e. if Obama doesn’t come in at least second in Iowa. However, at this point Sen. Obama looks to be more than a flash in the pan. |
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George W. Bush’s repute hasn’t hit bottom yet. |
I was pretty clearly right about this but it now looks as though his repute is climbing again. I doubt it’ll ever be as low as it was last spring. |
Nine and a half out of my thirteen predictions turned out to be correct for a total of 73%. My track record continues to be pretty good and, oddly, the same as last year.
I’ll have my predictions for 2007 up tomorrow.