The gods like us.
A former Republican lawmaker who nearly defeated Arlen Specter in a bruising 2004 primary said on Monday that the Pennsylvania senator faces a tougher road to reelection in 2010.
Former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), whom Specter defeated by less than two percentage points in 2004, said he hasn't ruled out a 2010 rematch, but has no timetable for a decision.
Toomey, as it happens, is the President of the Club for Growth, having assumed the position after very nearly knocking off Specter in 2004. He lost 51% to 49%.
Lest memory does not serve, the Club for Growth has a sterling record in issuing primary challenges to popular, moderate Republican incumbents. In 2006, the Club ousted Republican Rep. Joe Schwarz of Michigan, and replaced him with far-right Rep. Tim Walberg. After squeaking out a victory against an underfunded Democrat, Walberg lost in 2008 to Democrat Mark Schauer.
Also in 2008, the Club's folks torpedoed moderate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest of Maryland with rabidly conservative State Sen. Andy Harris. The happy result of this was that the seat went to Democrat Frank Kratovil on election day.
Even when they lose, they lose: after a spirited Club challenge to Sen. Lincoln Chafee in 2006, the weakened Republican incumbent lost quite handily in November to liberal Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.
Given this track record, one would think that the Club wouldn't be mucking about with a U.S. Senate seat in a Democratic-leaning state like Pennsylvania. But that's just what they intend to do:
"He’s significantly more vulnerable now than he was in 2004," Toomey said in an interview.
He argued that Specter’s core constituency in the GOP, which he called "liberal and moderate Republicans," have since left the party and will be unable to vote in Pennsylvania’s closed Republican primary. That will make it more difficult for Specter to prevail against a conservative opponent, Toomey said.
Assuming current trends hold up, if Toomey wins the primary, a Democrat will win in the general. Yes, even MSNBC's Chris Matthews, who is apparently telling everybody and his brother that he's running for the Senate, could beat Toomey (though he trails Specter by 12 points according to current polling).
Democrats Reps. Joe Sestak, Patrick Murphy, and Allyson Schwartz are rumored to be interested in the race. If Toomey does run against Specter, the chance at a Senate seat may be too good for the Democrats to pass up.
