Dr. Michele Morgan migrated last fall from Detroit to Phoenix, taking a job as a psychiatrist. She expected her husband, Sam Kirkland, to soon join her, since he was accepting an early retirement package from his employer, General Motors. But he cannot move, he says, because he has not been able to sell the four-bedroom family home.
Fabrizio Costantini for The New York Times
Unable to sell his Detroit home, Sam Kirkland has been kept apart from his wife in Phoenix.
Fabrizio Costantini for The New York Times
Sam Kirkland expected the home in Detroit owned by him and his wife, Dr. Michele Morgan, a psychiatrist working in Phoenix, to bring $200,000. A similar home nearby sold for $90,000.
“As things now stand,” said Mr. Kirkland, who is 51 and intends to seek work in Phoenix, if he ever gets there, “my wife might decide to give up her job in Phoenix and come back to Detroit for a while, until we can sell the house.”
The rapid decline in housing prices is distorting the normal workings of the American labor market. Mobility opens up job opportunities, allowing workers to go where they are most needed. When housing is not an obstacle, more than five million men and women, nearly 4 percent of the nation’s work force, move annually from one place to another — to a new job after a layoff, or to higher-paying work, or to the next rung in a career, often the goal of a corporate transfer. Or people seek, as in Dr. Morgan’s case, an escape from harsh northern winters.
Now that mobility is increasingly restricted. Unable to sell their homes easily and move on, tens of thousands of people like Mr. Kirkland and Dr. Morgan are making the labor force less flexible just as a weakening economy puts pressure on workers to move to wherever companies are still hiring.
Signaling an incipient recession, nearly 85,000 jobs disappeared in the United States from December through February, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to announce on Friday that March failed to produce a turnaround in hiring.
“You hear a lot about foreclosure and the thousands of families who are being forced out,” said Joseph S. Tracy, director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “But that is swamped by the number of people who want to sell their homes and can’t.”
No government agency counts those who move for a job, either across state lines or just from one town to another in the same state. The Census Bureau, however, calculates how many people move across state lines for all reasons, and that number fell by a startling 27 percent last year, after climbing by almost that percentage for each of the previous three years.
With homes changing hands easily in a booming market, interstate migration reached 2.2 million people in 2006, excluding the effects of Hurricane Katrina. As the economy and home prices began to unravel in 2007, however, interstate migration plunged to 1.6 million people.
“That is still a historically high number,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “It reflects the relatively strong economy until midyear. But given what’s happening now, I would be surprised if domestic migration isn’t at a record low in 2008.”
Worker mobility — or rather immobility — is making a big contribution to this decline, Mr. Zandi and other economists say. Retirees are similarly stuck in their homes. In normal times, they frequently sell so they can move to condos in Florida or assisted-living facilities or smaller quarters near adult children.
“These older people spent all of their lives earning the money to buy their homes,” said Robert J. Shiller, a Yale economist who is an expert on housing, “and now they resist selling for less than they believe their homes are worth.”
Corporate transfers contribute significantly to worker mobility, and employers often cover at least some of the cost of selling a home in the old location and buying one in the new. That practice can backfire, says Richard Shaw, a vice president of Applied Industrial Technologies, which sells gears, motors, bearings and other industrial parts from 337 centers around the country.
Out of 3,500 employees in the United States, Applied normally transfers 25 to 30 each year from one center to another, or to the headquarters in Cleveland. Almost all are career people rising in the ranks. Despite the opportunity, transfers have fallen by half, Mr. Shaw said. That is mainly because transferred employees too often find themselves owning two homes — one in the old location and one in the new — and paying two mortgages.
Applied tries to minimize the problem by paying one of the two mortgages for up to six months, the expectation being that the old home will sell by then. Increasingly, that does not happen, not with inventories of homes across the country at an 18-year high, according to the National Association of Realtors. That makes employees reluctant to move, even for a raise and a promotion, Mr. Shaw said.
He tells of one transferred executive “who ended up owning two homes for more than six months and, finding himself paying two mortgages, opted to move back to his original city, surrendering his new house to the bank.”
Mr. Kirkland is determined to sell before he moves. But that might take months, he acknowledges. A house that he thought would bring $200,000 — its appraised price three years ago — in fact might bring only $90,000 if he were to sell it today. That was the selling price for a similar 2,500-square-foot home on the next block, and Mr. Kirkland wants more than the $125,000 in debt that he and his wife still have on their house.
“When I stop working at G.M., I am going to devote myself to the house, making it look as pristine as possible,” Mr. Kirkland said.
He is also trying to make a major career transition. After 30 years as a G.M. employee — most recently at a parts warehouse in Pontiac, Mich., serving as a full-time union official of his United Automobile Workers local — he accepted one of the early retirement packages that the company is offering to shrink its work force. Taking courses by mail, he is studying for a master’s degree in organization and development. His goal is to get work in that field in Phoenix, perhaps with a community organization. His wife, who is 47, relocated in October, in time to escape the Michigan winter, and his two daughters are away at college.
But getting to Phoenix is now problematic. He will not leave the house, afraid that if it sits empty, it will be a target for vandals. “I might have to spend so much time living at the house and working on it,” Mr. Kirkland said, “that my wife will say, ‘I can always have a job as a psychiatrist here in Phoenix, but I might have to go back to Detroit for a while.’ ”
Gayle Newton, in a somewhat similar fashion, delayed her departure from Taylorsville, N.C., for two years while she tried to sell her two-bedroom home, on a large parcel of land, for $89,000. She finally gave up, rented the house last September and moved in with her daughter and son-in-law in Baltimore, quickly landing a job there for $15 an hour in the accounts payable department of a granite quarry. Until she left Taylorsville, Ms. Newton, who is 53, did similar work for a furniture company at $9 an hour.
She had put her home on the market in 2006, not long after her husband died and she found herself alone in Taylorsville in a job that did not pay enough to keep her there. She decided to live near her daughter, to find higher-paying work and to apply the proceeds from selling her home toward another one in Baltimore.
“That seemed like a good year, 2006,” Ms. Newton said, “but the downturn in housing had already started in our area. I didn’t realize it. I never imagined that a house on seven acres would not sell. I thought at $89,000 it would be a steal and I could move on to Baltimore much sooner than I did. My daughter finally came and insisted. She could not stand my whining any longer.”
The house in Taylorsville is still unsold.
译文:
房屋不能卖出导致迁移下降
去年秋天，米歇尔·摩根博士找到一份精神病医师的工作，从底特律移居至凤凰城。她希望他的丈夫，山姆·卡卡兰德很快就能和她一起过来，因为他正在接受到来着他的雇主--通用汽车--的提前退休计划。但是他仍然不能搬过去，他说，他还没能卖掉他的四个卧室的家宅。
由于不能卖掉底特律的房子，山姆·卡卡兰德正在和他在凤凰城的妻子分居。
山姆·卡卡兰德希望这幢和她老婆-正在凤凰城作为一位精神病医师工作的米歇尔·摩根-共有的房子能够卖20万美金，但在那附近相似的房子只售9万。
“像目前这种状况”，51岁，如果已经去乐凤凰城并想在那找工作的卡卡兰德先生说，“我太太可能决定放弃她在凤凰城的工作会底特律一段时间，直到我们能卖出我们的房子。”
迅速下跌的房价正在扰乱美国正常的劳动力市场。可迁移性活跃了工作机会，允许工人们去他们最被需要的地方。当房子不是障碍时，有超过5百万的男女，接近国家劳动力的百分之四，每年从一个地方移动到另一个地方--在失业后去找到一个工作，或者找到一份更高收入的工作，或者到职业生涯的下一阶段，这常常是是公司迁移的目标。或者人们找寻一个逃离难受的北方冬天的地方，就像摩根医生一样。
现在可迁移性愈加受限制了。不能方便的出售他们的房屋进行迁移，成千上万像卡卡兰德和摩根博士一样的人正在更小的灵活的环境下工作，就像一个虚弱的经济给工作者们迁移到给他们提供工作公司的地方去带来了压力。
从12月到2月，将近8万5千个工作岗位在美国消失，这标志着经济衰退初期的到来。并且劳动统计局预期要在周五发布三月份在雇佣任未好转的消息。
“你们听说了大量的丧失抵押品赎回权和成百上千的家庭被迫赶出自己的家园，”琼斯福·S·崔丝，纽约联邦储备局的主管说“这个数字里面包括那些想卖出自己房子但买不出的人。”
没有政府机构计算了多少人为了工作迁移，或者是过州界的，或者只是在同一个州从这个镇迁移到另一个镇。然而人口统计局有一个因各种理由越过州界人的统计数据，这个数字比去年同期令人吃惊的下降了27%，这差不多是此前三年增长的百分比。
在一度繁荣房屋易转手的市场中，州际的迁移再2006年到达了220万，这期间还有卡特里娜飓风的影响。然而，由于2007年经济和房屋价格的下行，州际间的迁移已经下滑到了160万。
“这仍然是一个历史性的高位”，马克·詹迪，穆迪金融公司的首席经济学家。“它反映了直到年中依然相对强劲的经济。依照现在目前的情况，如果在2008年国内迁移不创新低的话才怪呢。”
工人们的移动性--或者宁愿不移动--是正在导致这次下滑的重要原因，詹迪先生和其他经济学家说。退休者由于相似的原因被困在他们的房子里。正常的情况下，他们频繁的卖出，所以他们能住进佛罗里达的公寓中或有帮助的生活公共设施里或者住在成年子女附近。
“这些老人们穷尽一生所赚去买他们的房子”，罗伯特J·希尔，一名专门研究房屋的耶鲁经济学家说，“现在他们抵制以比他们预期价格低的价格出售房屋。”
公司的搬迁对工作者的迁移影响重大，老爸通常卖出原据点的房子来弥补在新地点买房的花费。这种经验往往适得其反，来自于应用工业技术的一位副主席理查德·肖说，这是一家在国内337个中心买齿轮，发动机，轴承和其他工业零部件的公司。
美国每3千5百个员工中，每年一般有25到30个从一个中心转移到另一个中心，或者去城市的总部。大部分是职业生涯的升迁。尽管这是机会，但是迁移仍然下跌了一般，肖先生说。这主要是因为这些迁移的雇员们太经常的发现他们被两座房子捆住了--一个在原来的地方，另一个在新的地方--付两份抵押贷款。
申请房屋的人试着通过6个月只付一套房的方式来最小化问题，期望原来的房屋那时能够被出售。根据国家房地产协会的房屋数据显示，随着本国18年的房屋高存存量，这种情况很难实现了。这使得雇员们不愿迁移，即使是涨工资或者升迁，肖先生说。
他告诉一个迁移执行官“当一个人发现自己要付两套房屋抵押贷款时会结束超过6个月拥有两套房，选择回到原来的城市，把新房交给银行。”
卡卡兰德决定在他搬迁之前出售房子。但这要些时日，他明白。一套他原想能带给他20万美圆的房子--它的三年前的估价--实际上今天出售只能带给他9万美圆。这是在相邻街区一套相近的2千5百平方英尺房子的售价，卡卡兰德先生仍想以超出他和他妻子在这套房子12万5千圆的负债的价格卖出。
“当我停止在通用汽车的工作时，我准备全身心的来搞这个房子，让他看起来尽可能的质朴，”卡卡兰德先生说。
他也试着做一个主要的职业转换。在当了通用汽车30年员工之后--最近在庞太客，米齐的一间零部件仓库做联合汽车工人协会全职官员--他接受了公司用来收缩工人数量所提供的提前退休计划方案之一。通过邮件学习课程，他正在攻读在机构和发展方面的硕士学位。
他的目标是在凤凰城这一领域找到工作，或许通过一个团体组织。他太太，47岁，在10月份完成了重新定位，及时的逃离了密歇根州的冬天，他的两个女儿也远在学校。
然而去凤凰城目前是有问题的。他不会离开这房子，担心如果空着它，它会成为野蛮人的目标。“我或许必须化如此多的时间住在这房子里并且为它工作，”卡卡兰德先生说，“我太太会说‘我可以在凤凰城做一个精神病医生，但我必须回底特律一会儿。’”
吉利·牛顿，也处于类似的情况中，推迟了她离开泰勒斯威尔，N，C。她已经试图卖掉她在一大块地上的两居室房子两年了，8万9千美圆。她最终放弃了，去年9月租出了这房子，搬去和在巴尔的摩的女儿女婿同住，很快就找到了一份在花岗岩采石场付款部15美圆每小时的工作。在她离开泰勒斯威尔时，53岁的牛顿女士，在家具厂做相似的工作只赚9美圆一小时。
2006年，她把她的房子挂在市场上，那时她丈夫去世后不久，她发现她在泰勒斯威尔独自一人的那份工作不够应付她在那的生活。她决定住在女儿附近，并找一份更高收入的工作。她想通过卖掉她的房子，在巴尔的摩买过一处。
“2006年看起来是不错的一年，”牛顿女士说，“但是我们地区房产掉头向下已经开始了。我没有意识到。我不能想象在7亩地上的房子买不掉。我认为在8万9千美金的价格是拣个大便宜，我能比我想的还快的搬到巴尔的摩去。我的女儿过来并且坚持了。她不能再忍受我的抱怨了。”
在泰勒斯威尔的房子仍然没卖掉。