THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
So ... I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
Why?
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”
I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
译文:
美国股票，我买
美国股票，我买 （沃伦·巴菲特）
如今的金融界一团糟，无论是美国国内还是全世界均是如此。其问题已然渐渐渗入至整个经济领域，而其严重性也正呈井喷趋势。就近期看来，失业率将上升，商业活动逐渐低迷，而新闻头条也将充斥着恐惧色彩。
然而我，正在购买美国股。我所谈论的是我的私人账户，在此之前我的账户里只有美国政府债券。（这里并未涉及到美国伯克希尔哈撒韦公司1的股票持有，因为那些已全部贡献给慈善事业。）如果价格持续诱人，我的非伯克希尔资本净额将百分之百地拥有美国股票。
这是为什么呢？
我的交易始终遵循这样的原则：在别人贪婪时恐惧，在别人恐惧时贪婪。当然，恐惧心理正在蔓延，即便是老道的投资者也深陷其中。毋庸置疑，投资者们对那些高杠杆或竞争力薄弱的经济体持谨慎态度，是正确的。但是，怀疑具有长期发展潜质的公司却并非理智。实际上这些公司就如以往一样，面临盈利上的小问题，然而大部分公司会在5年、10年或20年内创造新的盈利记录。
我想澄清一点：我无法预测股票市场的短期动向。我也无法判断未来一月或一年的股票或涨或跌。然而从大体上看，无论投资者情绪或经济形势如何变化，市场终究会走高。所以如果你还在等待知更报春，那春天便不会眷顾于你。
回顾历史，在大萧条时期，1932年7越8日美国道琼斯指数创历史新低，跌至41点。经济形势持续恶化直至1933年3月富兰克林·罗斯福总统任前，。然而那时市场价值却已上升了30%。回顾二战初期，美国在欧洲与太平洋地区的情况陷入僵局时，市场于1942年4月探底，当时盟国的援助还远远未能扭转局势。同样，上世纪80年代，购买股票的时机恰恰是通胀肆虐、经济疲软之际。总之，利空消息对投资者而言却是有利的，它让你以低估的市场价格将一部分美国的未来收入囊中。
就长期而言，股市将呈利好趋势。在20世纪，美国经历两次世界大战，其他重创以及代价昂贵的军事冲突；大萧条、十多次经济衰退与金融危机、石油冲突、流感疫情以及总统因丑闻辞职，然而道琼斯指数却从66点飙升至11497点。
你可能会认为，投资者不可能会在这个如此高回报的世纪里亏钱，但确实有投资者亏了。那些不幸的投资者只在感觉良好时买进股票，而在报纸头条令其恐慌时卖出股票。
如今人们手中持有现金或其等价物则倍感欣慰。而事实并非如愿。他们选择了一项糟糕的长期资产，那些资产几乎没有任何回报并且将来肯定贬值。实际上，政府致力缓解当前危机的政策极有可能带来通胀，使现金账户的真实价值加速贬值。
今后10年里，权益资产将在相当大的程度上优于现金资产。那些持有现金资产的投资者们在押注，等待将来的某个有效时机他们能从中抽身。他们等待着利好消息的到来，而忽视了维恩·格雷斯基2的话：“我滑向冰球将去的方向而不是它曾经所在的位置。”
我不想对股市发表任何意见，我也再次强调，我无法预测市场的短期走向。但是，我会遵循一家开在空银行大楼里的饭店的广告语：“过去你的钱在这，现在你的嘴在这。”如今我的钱和我的嘴都在股市里。