In USA, Forrester Research surveyed 333 marketers with 200 or more employees and asked a very telling question: “How would you change your online spending patterns if there is an economic recession in the next six months?” Over one-quarter said they would increase spending on Internet advertising, while only 13% said they would decrease it. Another 15% were undecided. Even more-bullish expectations for digital spending were cited by respondents in an Epsilon CMO survey conducted in September. Among 175 senior marketing executives, 63% expected increases for interactive/online marketing spending for 2008; only 14% expected a reduction.
This month, a survey by MarketingProfs, of 600 US marketers, found that 60% planned to increase their spending on online advertising in reaction to the downturn.
In China, a Millard Brown survey has also shown that 51% of 230 marketers will increase their spending next year. Even investment banker is saying that China will see iresearch also predicted xxxx
“In the recession of 2009, marketers will be making cuts almost across the board, and will seek safe harbors and cost-efficient alternatives.”
—Jack Myers, JackMyers Media Business Report, October 13, 2008
Traditional media—newspapers, magazines, TV and radio—will be hit hard, as marketers become more frugal with ad dollars or take their money and apply it to more-measurable media.
As usual, online spending is the one bright spot, and as a measurable medium should continue to reap benefits in a down economy. Online spending and its share of total ad spending will increase year-over-year through 2010, but even that media growth is slowing compared with the past few years. Myers Publishing predicted that online spending in 2008 would total $24.6 billion, an increase of 13.8% compared with last year, and that it would climb 13.4% to $27.9 billion in 2009.
“While economic realities are slowing the growth of emerging media, at least they are growing, unlike traditional media,” Jack Myers of Myers Publishing said in a statement. “In the recession of 2009, marketers will be making cuts across the board and will seek safe harbors and cost-efficient alternatives.”
According to CSLA Asia-Pacific Markets, China’s advertising market is expected to grow 15% in 2009. They spoke with the China Strategy Director of WPP, one of China’s largest advertising agencies. He remains relatively bullish on China’s advertising market and expects the market to grow at a healthy 15% in 2009, compared to 22% this year. Most advertisers expect to increase their ad budgets for 2009 though at a smaller extent compared to 2008. Most sectors except property and finance has not felt pressure to tighten ad spending.
Zenith Optimedia, a leading global advertising consulting firm, also expect China advertising market to grow at a strong 63.5% (18% CAGR) over 2008-2010. The strong domestic consumption will help support the healthy growth of the local advertising market. This is in a stark contrast to the developed markets like US where they expect growth to be only 9.9% (3% CAGR) over same period. Online advertising second faster growing media in China Online advertising is the second fastest growing ad media for WPP after digital media given its low base, increasing popularity. They believe that their forecast of 25% YoY growth for online advertising market in 2009 is achievable given expanding ad market and increasing ads shifting online with rising internet traffic. More advertisers are using internet platform as a cheaper alternative.
Marketers should rightly ask, “What is behind the bullish projections for online ad spending, especially when most traditional media are taking the financial equivalent of body blows?” The seven reasons are as follows:
1. The Internet is inherently more measurable and accountable than are traditional channels.
2. The Internet allows for better, more-granular targeting than do other forms of media. That reduces media waste and can save marketing dollars.
3. The Internet is interactive, thereby allowing for a higher degree of engagement with consumer and business prospects and customers.
4. Particularly among younger consumers, the Internet is accounting for a larger and larger share of total media time; numerous studies demonstrate that people aged 18-16 are spending more time online per week than they are watching television. ( Add pictures)
5. The Internet plays into the consumer-in-control movement and therefore provides new opportunities for marketers to be a part of their conversations about interests,attitudes, shopping plans and even brands.
6. New Web 2.0 phenomena such as blogs, social networks and Twitter provide marketers with the potential to gain rich insights into consumer behavior and attitudes (the Internet is like a perpetual focus group on steroids).
7. The Internet, unlike any other medium or channel, allows marketers to reach prospects throughout the entire consumer buying cycle, from initial awareness through pre-information-gathering to sales and post-sale feedback and support.
译文:
营销新视点：网络广告逆市飘红
Forrester调研公司在美国访问了333名营销人士，其中包括超过200名雇员。调查中提到一个很生动的问题：“如果未来6个月发生经济危机，贵公司将如何改变互联网广告投放模式？”超过四分之一的受访者表示将加大互联网广告投放力度，而13%的受访者则表示将缩减这方面的投入，另外15%表示尚未决定。
Epsilon 九月份针对营销高管所做的调查得出了一个关于互联网广告更加乐观的结论。在被访的175名营销高管当中，63%预期2009年的互动/网络营销费用将有所增长，仅有14%的受访者预期会下调。本月，MarketingProfs针对600名美国营销人员所做的调查中，60%受访者计划提高互联网广告的投入，以应对经济危机。MillwardBrown在中国所做的一次调研显示，在230名受访营销人员中，51%表示将提升09年互联网广告预算。
面对2009年的经济危机，营销人士将全面缩减预算，并寻求安全合算的替代媒体。
--Jack Myers, Jack Myers媒体商业报告，2008年10月13日
由于市场营销人士在费用方面变得越发谨慎，或者将预算用于更可衡量的媒体，包括报纸、杂志、电视和广播的传统媒体收入将受到严重冲击。网络广告花费一直是引人注目的焦点，尤其在经济低迷的形势下，互联网作为可衡量的媒体仍将持续获利。即使互联网广告的增速较前几年有所放缓，但直至2010年，互联网广告投放及其在整体广告费用中所占比例仍将保持强劲的增长趋势。Myers Publishing预测，2008年美国在线广告投放总额将达到246亿美元，相对2007年提高了13.8%，而2009年将再增长13.4%，达到279亿美元。
中国最大的广告代理商之一WPP集团中国策略总监在接受CSLA Asia-Pacific Markets采访时表示对中国广告市场保持相对乐观的态度。中国强大的本土消费力为国内广告市场健康的增长态势提供有力支持。2008年，中国广告市场达到22%的增幅，而2009年将保持15%的健康增速。除了房地产和金融以外，大部分行业尚未感觉到缩减广告预算的压力。全球领先的广告咨询机构实力传播（Zenith Optimedia）也预测，2008年至2010年中国广告市场将有63.5%的强劲增长（复合年均增长率为18%）。
对于WPP集团而言，互联网广告是继数字媒体以其低门槛的特点被普遍认可后，下一个快速增长的广告媒体。WPP认为，由于广告市场的不断扩展，以及因互联网流量的提升而引发的互联网广告收入增加，2009年互联网广告增长25%是完全可以实现的目标。同时，越来越多营销人士也将互联网广告平台作为花费相对较低的替代性媒体。
那么，市场营销人士一定会问：“在当下传统媒体受到经济危机严重影响的情况下，什么原因使我们仍然保持对互联网广告的乐观预测？”以下七个原因对此做出了解释。
1. 相对于传统媒体而言，互联网的效果更具可衡量性和可靠性。
2. 相对于传统媒体而言，互联网可以接触到更精准、更细化的目标受众，这可以为广告主避免媒介资源浪费从而节省市场营销费用。
3. 互联网具有互动性，为消费者提供更高层次的参与度，从而为企业发掘更多潜在顾客。
4. 对年轻消费者而言，互联网占据了他们媒体消费时间越来越大的比重；大量研究表明16-18岁的消费者每周花在互联网的时间大于看电视的时间
5. 互联网成为消费者主导行为的一个载体，同时也为市场营销人员提供了与消费者对话的机会，能够更多了解消费者的兴趣、态度、购物计划甚至品牌选择。
6. 囊括了博客、社交网络等Web 2.0产品为市场营销人员提供了良好的机会，通过了解消费者的行为和态度来获得更丰富的消费者洞察（互联网在一定程度上可以视为持续性的焦点小组）。
7. 不同于其他媒体或渠道，互联网允许市场营销人员直接接触消费者，了解消费者的整个购买过程，从最初的品牌认知，到购买前信息收集，到销售，到售后反馈和支持。