当美国和我们说“不”的时候,加拿大会如何?

读者: 1172    发布时间: 2008

原文: What Will Canada Do When the US Tells Us "No"?

harper bushIt is hard to imagine that the US doesn't have a plan to annex Canada. A nation that has no hesitation in trumping up charges against a country half a world away when it is perceived to threaten its energy security, and then bombing the hell out of it, killing and injuring hundreds of thousands of civilians and utterly destroying its infrastructure and social fabric, would not think twice about seizing control of a nation that offers it even more (and whose animosity would severely threaten its national interest).

There was a plan, in the years between the two world wars, to do just that. It was declassified decades ago and now makes rather quaint reading. But there is no question that there is an American "contingency plan" to annex Canada if need be, just as surely as there is one to bomb Iran as the next stage to secure the oil on which the entire American economy utterly depends.

There are reasons to believe that the US doesn't expect it will have to do this. More than half of all Canadian business, by revenue, is foreign-owned, and the vast majority of that is American. The employment picture is probably comparable, although it's hard to compute when franchisees of foreign companies are considered Canadian companies. Likewise, there are no records of citizenship or residence of land-holders in Canada, so determining how much land is in foreign hands is impossible to determine. But it is pretty evident that the Canadian economy is substantially foreign-owned and foreign-controlled. If we did something to displease our American owners, they could shut down our economy pretty effectively.

This sell-out has occurred over decades, with both Liberal and Conservative regimes dismantling Canadian ownership regulations consistently. Then we signed NAFTA, effectively ceding authority to write social or environmental laws any stronger than those of the weakest laws anywhere in the three countries. When you can't write laws to protect your own people, you really have no sovereignty left. The right-wing Harper minority government has made no secret of its desire for full political and economic integration with the US, and the reaction of the Canadian people has been astonishingly blasé. Our economy is so dependent on the US already that the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar moves in lockstep with the Dow.

There is reason to believe that this control will not be enough to placate those in the US concerned with trying to sustain that country's unsustainable economy, however:
  1. The US desperately needs the oil from Canada's bitumen sludge mines (the so-called "tar sands"), the worst ecological disaster on the planet. These operations are currently uneconomic, and it will take huge improvements in technology, and the energy from whole farms of nuclear power plants and natural gas from Canada's fragile arctic, to extract the oil from the sludge. It will also take staggering amounts of Canadian fresh water. 
  2. Speaking of water, the US needs Canada's Western glacial water to replace the rapidly disappearing glacial water that provides people, industry and recreation with most of their water in most of the Western US states. Canada's water is also running out, except in the Arctic, but the US shortage will be much more severe and come much sooner.
  3. Electricity from Canadian hydroelectric plants supplies a substantial amount of US electrical needs. But Canadians are trying to shut down coal-fired power plants and use hydro power to make up some of the difference.
  4. As global warming melts the Arctic, there will be huge pressure to plunder the hydrocarbons in that area. It's a drop in the bucket compared to the US thirst for oil, but the US is desperate for anything they can fill gas tanks with. Much of this energy is under Canadian waters, but the US has recently said it will not honour Canadian sovereignty over these waters, and considers them "international waters". Burning this energy will, of course, accelerate global warming.
  5. Likewise, as the Arctic melts, the lucrative Northwest Passage will be open for shipping year-round. It is clearly in Canadian waters, but the US disputes this sovereignty.
None of this bodes well for the future of Canada-US relations, and as the US starts to run out of land, the hunger for more land will make the situation even more volatile.

This could all come to a head if Canada were to do (or try to do) any of the following:
  1. Restrict foreign ownership of land, resources or assets or shares of businesses in 'strategic' industries.
  2. Increase social or environmental regulations to the point the bitumen sludge mining operations or Arctic development became non-viable at any price.
  3. Restrict taking of water from Canadian waters, or sale of electricity to non-Canadians.
  4. Proclaim sovereignty over Canadian waters.
These are not especially grievous things for a country to do -- most countries believe it is their right to do these things in areas of their own jurisdiction.

But not Canada. If we were to try to do any of these things, the US would simply say "no". They would start by protesting, and suing us under NAFTA and other extraterritorial laws. And if that wasn't enough they would do whatever it took to get the restrictions on their untrammeled access to our resources, land and waters removed. Whatever it took.

Harper rolled over on NAFTA already, settling for a fraction (still unpaid) of what the NAFTA courts said the US stole from us illegally. He has no intention of doing anything to impede Canada-US integration.

But at some point Canadians will have had enough of Harper's arrogance, just as they did with the previous Conservative administration of Mulroney, and turf him out of office. He is in power now only because his right-wing party competes with four left-of-centre parties who split the vote in our absurd first-past-the-post voting system. Most Canadians would be glad to see the end of him, and sooner or later they will get their way, and a party or coalition amenable to the majority will be elected. And that new government will almost certainly do one or more of the four things above. The US will then say "no" and do whatever it takes to have the restrictions blocked or removed.

What will we do then? I suspect we will do nothing. Four in ten Americans want to annex Canada anyway, according to a recent poll. In another poll, only 57% of British citizens would support action to defend Canada from US annexation.

Canadians are pacifists at heart. Most of us no longer believe the war in Afghanistan is worth continuing, and most of us always opposed the war in Iraq. We have among the most liberal immigration laws in the world, taking in far more than our share of refugees and immigrants (though now, under Harper, American war objectors are no longer accepted, but that will be a short-lived anomaly). We acknowledge, I guess, that our natural wealth was a fortune of birth, not something we really earned. It belongs to the world, to all of us, and if someone wants to steal it from us, we'll just shrug and say "too bad, it was nice while it lasted".

Americans, believers in manifest destiny, the private ownership of everything, might makes right, and the end justifies the means, can't really understand this. They see it as cowardice, or complacency, tacit approval for their takeover of everything Canadian, and for their American worldview. They will turn the rest of Western Canada into a deforested and toxic wasteland, and Northern Canada into a melting, oil-slicked military stronghold. And we will let them, while convincing ourselves that It's not really that bad, There is no other real choice, I don't know anything about that, or There's nothing we can do about that.

That's what empires do to colonies. And that's what colonies do when they do it.

译文: 当美国和我们说“不”的时候,加拿大会如何?

harper bush      很难想想美国没有要吞并加拿大的野心。一个国家只是因为嗅到可能出现的能源威胁的时候,就毫不犹豫的不顾横跨半个地球之远对另外一个国家横加干涉,使得数以百万人民深受生灵涂炭之苦并彻底毁坏了该国的经济基础和社会结构,将对方陷入万劫不复的境地。这样的一个国家肯定会不假思索的掌控一个会给它带来更多利益的国家的命脉的。
      在二战期间就曾有这样的一个计划。在几十年前这已经就不是秘密了,而现在就更明显了。如果有必要的话,毫无疑问美国再一次“不经意的计划”的去吞并加拿大,就好像为了保证美国经济赖以生存的原油的控制权而对伊朗进行的武力威胁一样。
      我们有足够的理由相信,对于加拿大美国还不想这么做。根据财政报告,加拿大一半以上的商业公司都为外国所有,其中绝大部分是美国的。尽管很多时候那些被外国人所拥有的公司常常被认为是加拿大的公司使得统计起来比较困难,但是雇佣图表还是有一定说服力的。正如在加拿大没有公民以及房产持有者的统计登记,所以想要知道有多少加拿大的土地被外国人所持有也是非常困难的。但是有充分的证据可以证明加拿大的经济主要是由外国人持有并控制的。如果我们做了那些使美国出资者不快的事情,他们能够立即给我们的经济带来打击。
      上述提及的情况已经存在了很多年,无论是自由党还是保守党都一直致力于阻止加拿大所有权的分化。我们签署了《北美自由贸易协定》有效的分化主导权以便制定一些比在这三个国家里一直奉行的毫无作用的现行的法律更有效的相关社会和环境的法律。当你不能够制定出保护自己人民的法律,那你实际上就不再拥有什么实质的统治权了。以哈珀为首的右翼的少数派领导的政府对于他们想要和美国在政治和经济进行完全的整合毫不掩饰,而加拿大人民的反映是令人惊异的无动于衷。我们的经济已经深深的依附于美国了,加元的市值总是和随着陶氏公司而起落的美元而起伏。

 

有理由相信这些措施是不足以安抚在美国的那些关注自己国家经济无法自主的人们的,然而:

1.       美国迫切的需要能从加拿大沥青软矿(也就是所谓的沥青砂)中提炼原油,这是地球上最可怕的环保灾难。就目前而言,从沥青砂里面提取原油这项工程是会耗费大量财力的,需要在技术方面有很大的提高,从核能厂获取能源以及从加拿大北部沿北极圈附近获取天然气。而这一切也需要耗费加拿大大量的淡水资源。

2.       谈到水源,美国需要加拿大西部冰山所产生的淡水以替代在美国西部那些一直以来提供居民以及工业用水的不断消逝的冰山。除了北冰洋地区,加拿大的淡水资源也在不断消逝,但是相比起来,美国遭遇的淡水资源危机要更为严重而且会来的更快。

3.       加拿大的水力发电厂稳定的为美国提供所需要的大量所需的电能。但是加拿大尽量减少火力发电厂转而利用水力发电来供电。

4.       随着全球变暖,北冰洋也在不断融化。这会对在这一地区争抢水能带来更大的压力。而这与美国的原油紧缺相比是微不足道而已。美国相近一切办法使得自己的原油储量得以保障。这些能源都是与加拿大的水源相关的,但是美国最近声称他们不会认同加拿大对于这些水源的所有权,而是认为那些都是“国际共有的”。使用这些能源当然会加速全球变暖。

5.       同样,随着北冰洋的融化,会带来丰厚利润的西北行道也会全年畅通无阻。明显这个航道是属于加拿大,可是美国却质疑它的主权。

这一切都预示着美加关系趋冷,而且随着美国土地资源的枯竭,对于更多土地的渴望使得这个情况会更加复杂。

如果加拿大做了下列事情的任意一件的话,情况就会完全不同了:

1.       策略的在工商业方面限制外国投资者在加拿大的土地、资源、资产和各类股份的所有权。

2.       增加对于社会和环境方面的管理规定以限制对于沥青矿的开采或者是以任何代价将北冰洋变成不适宜生存的地域。

3.       限制从加拿大摄取水源,禁止向非加拿大地区出售电能。

4.       明确宣布加拿大对于水源的所有权。

这些对于任何一个国家而言都不是难以做出的痛苦抉择,大部分国家会认为在自己的领土上这么做是天经地义的。但是加拿大则不然。如果他们做了上述任何一件事,美国都会简简单单的说“不”。他们会抗议,会依照所谓的《北美自由贸易协定》或者其他什么不相关的法律起诉加拿大。如果那还不够的话,他们会不惜一切代价来限制我们对于资源、土地、水源等方面的权利,无论以什么为代价。

哈珀已经根据《北美自由贸易协定》使出浑身解数来解决由该组织认定的美国从我国非法盗取(当然是没有付任何费用)一部分资源。他从未有任何意图或是做任何事情以妨碍美加的整合。

但是一些加拿大人会因为哈珀曾经对于穆勒尼执掌的保守党政府的所作所为而对他的自大傲慢忍无可忍,而把他驱出当前政府。他之所以现在当权,仅仅是因为在荒谬的简单多数票当选的票选体系中,哈珀所在的右翼党派与其他四个分化了选票的中间偏左的政党的竞争中胜出而已。大多数加拿大人都希望看到他倒台的一天,早晚他们就会如愿以偿,随后那些可以赢得大多数人支持的政党或者联盟就会被推选出来。而新的政府几乎可以肯定在上述四件事情中至少做上一件也许更多。而美国会说“不”然后会不惜一切代价使得所谓的限制无法实施。

那我们应该怎么办呢?我怀疑我们什么也做不了。无论怎么样,根据最近的民意调查,近四成的美国人希望吞并加拿大。而另一个调查显示,只有57%的英国人支持加拿大免遭美国的控制和吞并。

加拿大人都是彻头彻尾的和平主义者。我们大多数人都认为在阿富汗的战争不值得继续,我们大部分人也都坚决反对伊拉克战争。我们有全世界最为宽大的移民政策,接纳了远远超过我们能够承受的难民和移民(尽管,现在在哈珀当政期间,美国战争的反对者是不被接纳的,但是那只是暂时的情况而已)。我们承认,我猜,我们国家富饶是上帝的恩赐,而不是我们创造的。那属于世界,属于我们所有人,如果有人妄图盗取,我们会耸耸肩说“这太糟糕了,一直一来这都好好的。”

美国人,那些笃信命运的人,那些私人投资者很可能会找到适宜的最终可行的方法,而他们却不能真正理解这些。他们会认为这是都是对于他们接收加拿大一切事物的一种怯懦、隐晦或是有点自鸣得意的认同,是有利于美国的长远发展的。他们会把加拿大西部变成不毛之地,把加拿大北部变成军事要塞。而我们会由着他们肆意妄为,还说服自己说那些也未必是坏事。其实这根本没有其他选择,我对此毫无办法,或者说我们对此根本是束手无策。

这就是一个帝国对其殖民地的做法,而这也是一个殖民地在面对殖民统治时候的反映。