原文: Web 2.0's Real Secret Sauce: Network Effects

A lot of the early descriptions of and speculation around Web 2.0 last year were either chock full of examples or long lists of interesting new phenomena that seemed to be emerging on the Web.  My list of Web 2.0 explanations last year is a good survey of these.  This year however we seem to be zeroing in on the core phenomena underlying the sea changes of the Web and even in society itself.  Sure, some fundamental upgrades to the Web's infrastructure – including steady and significant improvements to the physics of the Web – have also helped things along (i.e. those great Ajax/RIA applications we love so much like Gmail and Gliffy, download in seconds now.)  But it's the widespread use of the two-way Web that's really the harbringer of an increasing sense of disruption.

Watch a TV panel that I was on with Google's Adam Bosworth on how the improvements to the physics of the Internet have enabled Google's newer products, particularly around SaaS and Ajax.

I wrote recently about the trend of Web 2.0 reductionism that is helping us get to Web 2.0 fundamentals and assisting us in understanding why it's such a game changer.  The upshot is that the Web is rapidly evolving and is increasingly being shaped by its users.  If you're not entirely sure that this is really a big deal though, you have only to look at the example of MySpace.  MySpace is as pure a Web 2.0 play as you're likely to find and they've exploited user generated content and network effects to become the #1 visited site on the Web (as of last week), from out of practically nowhere two years ago.  This is an extremely impressive achievement and shows the power of Web 2.0 techniques to quickly best even the very largest and most established industry leaders, including Google and Yahoo!  This demonstrates that the successful exploitation of what has been labelled "Web 2.0" can be an extremely disruptive force.  People are sitting up and taking notice.


If only the keys to doing this were in everyone's hands, the thinking goes, then disruption could be and would be widespread, even rampant, across business and society.   And certainly, a lot of folks are very interested in taking advantage these techniques (such as maximizing your users' social surface areas) both out on the Web, and within their own organizations.  This further explains the interest by venture capital investors, startups, and enterprises to get into the game before others use these techniques first to upend the traditional industry leaders in their areas of interest.  Mark my words, this year is only the beginning and those in less regulated industries that aren't constrained from using Web-based network effects effectively are going to have a very tough time of it.  This will prove to be true particularly in the next 24 months as everyone scrambles to try to figure out where this is all headed.

Fantastically and ironically, the keys to doing this actually are in everyone's hands today, right now.  Web 2.0 is a truly egalitarian force and though certain core competencies are required (being able to keep up with your own growth being one of them), just about anyone with a innovative idea and a good formulation of the techniques can access and tap into the existing audience of over 1 billion Web users.

Triggering Network Effects: As Simple As Establishing an Effective Viral Feedback Loop?  Surprisingly, yes.

The Web is the fabric upon which an ever increasing amount of our lives is woven into.  This is now most media including newspapers, TV, radio, entertainment, music, arts, etc. as well as what I call lifestyle logistics; e-mailing, IMs, calendaring, travel planning, time/task management, and more.  They are all moving or have already moved to the Web.  This very habit most of us have of being on the Web so much of the time, along with the easy lure of the hyperlink, which can redirect anyone via any of these 'channels' into a new Web 2.0 experience or site.  Thus, if someone loves your new site, they send their friends the link, they send their friends, and so on.  Instant pile-ons involving tens or hundreds of thousands of users overnight are now common.  And good viral feedback loops keep them there and keep them coming back, and bringing their friends with them.

Of course, in a few years the exact design patterns for triggering a new MySpace, Facebook, or similar social juggernaut will become common.  Then most likely balance will be reachieved in the industry and there will be less disruption.  But for now the secret balance of Web 2.0 techniques that powers growth through efficient access to network effects is still an art (read my Notes on Making Good Social Software for an idea of how these design patterns might look however).  The bottom line: the upside and downside potential of Web 2.0 is truly significant.  And it means that in most industries doing nothing is really no longer an option.

But let's talk about network effects for a minute.  What are they?  I've written before that the core description of a network effect  is when a good or service has more value the more that other people have it too.  Easy so far right?  Examples include e-mail, IMing, the blogosphere, and even the Web itself.  But what's not clear from this description is the raw power that is caught up in and represented by network effects.  Most rigorous studies and mathematical formulations reveal that there is tremendous geometric power in network effects.  Though Robert Metcalfe originally coined Metcalfe's Law to describe the raw potential of network effects in computer networks, most recent formulations have attempted to capture the exact value of them more precisely.  Most notable has been David Reed with his relatively well-thought out and profound  Reed's Law, as well as Odlyzko and Tilly with their work.  However, whichever formulation you believe is right (and Reed's Law, if true, has staggering implications in this regard), the result is clear: At even an early point, the cumulative value of a large number of connected users goes exponentially off the charts.


The end result: If you have a million people visiting your Web site but you're not leveraging network effects with them (such as by letting them contribute and letting others see and respond to those contributions), then you're probably squandering the greater part of the value of that million person audience.  Along comes someone else who does exploit the network effects of their users.  They can quickly leapfrog you if they figure out a good way to establish and harness the connections between those same users, again in some kind of viral feedback loop.  The new site will have the combined aggregated output of those users as part of its value proposition to new and existing users and it's clear which will win.  Examples: Digg bested Slashdot in just such a way.  YouTube is set to do something very similar to network and cable television.  Google is staging itself to best the #1 software company in the world.  There are many others.

So what do you do?  Most of us will soon face situations where the person or organization we're competing against will be trying to use these same techniques to gain advantage, marketshare, or whatever.  Agile development processes have taught us in recent years that that the tightest closed feedback loops resulted in better products, faster.  The Web is now allowing feedback loops of this kind between staggering numbers of non-centrally coordinated people from a ready -to-tap worldwide audience.  Emergent content, communities, and unintended results are all side effects of systems (and yes, your enterprise) with rampant network effects.  Learning how to channel these feedback loops and the resulting network effects constructively will become a significant competitive advantage and a required core competency across the majority of professional disciplines in the very near future.

Read David Berlind's excellent overview of Eventful and how they are using Web 2.0 techniques to be successful

But is this really happening?  Is the competitive landscape about to be torn up?  Are companies starting to respond?  It does appear so.  For one thing, I'm increasingly seeing traditional organizations trying to do things like "MySpacing" their current product offerings.  Everything from Starwood Resorts to major national interest groups are looking at creating business communities that are really viral social networks powered by their users.  It is a fascinating time to be building or reinventing a business. And if you haven't started, now is probably the time to begin the effort.  And worry not if you can't figure it all out right now, the entire world is still trying to figure out how it applies to them too.

How will you apply Web 2.0 to your life, business, or organization?

译文: Web 2.0 的秘方：网络效应

    曾经写过关于 Web 2.0 简化论 的文章，帮助大家了解Web 2.0的基本原理，并辅助我们去理解为什么要在这场游戏中转变自己的角色。Web 正处于飞速发展阶段，并且因为用户的参与在改变自己的原始面貌，如果你不确信这个以成事实的观点，你只需要看看 MySpace 这个最经典的例子。你仔细观察就会发现 MySpace 是一个标准的Web 2.0 网站，他们已经使用自己用户产生的内容通过网络效应实现了全球第一的访问量（就在上周）， 从他们诞生到现在不到两年的时间里。这个成绩给了人们一个非常深刻的印象，它显示出了Web 2.0模式的强大力量，甚至可以让你在短时间内超过那些已经存在的实力强大的网站，例如Google和Yahoo！这个现象充分证明了那些打上”Web 2.0″标签的成功应用有足够的能力来打破现有的游戏规则。大家已经开始正视这个现象了。

如何诱发网络效应（图解）

    诱发网络效应的实体，你的网络需要由下面形式的内容组成

•         内容（blogs / wikis）
•         人（社会网络 Social Networks），内容的提供者
•         活动群组（例如：Katrinalist），用来建立人与内容之间的关系

    诱发网络效应的机制

•         无障碍的参与方式，用户能够非常简便的贡献内容
•         内容能够有效连接
•         用户贡献的数据源必须是唯一的
•         小块的数据，能够自由的联合，被系统所识别，例如：Microformat
•         将你的网站作为平台
•         内容能够同步输出（RSS）
•         建立循环的反馈机制

    诱发网络效应的价值

•         社区的建立与成长
•         鼓舞用户
•         培养/收获 形式的创新
•         引起注意（例如广告）

    如果大家在行动上能够做到，思想也能够达到的话，那么这种方式就可以在现有的商业与社会结构中快速的、甚至是猖獗的蔓延！所以说，很多人对此充满了兴趣，他们会经常在网上和自己的朋友谈论Web 2.0相关的技术优势。这就更进一步的解释了那些风险投资商、创业者和企业都争着进入这场游戏，在那些传统行业的领先者还没有进入之前。用我自己的话来说，今年只是一个开端，那些没有有效地利用Web网络效应的行业将会渡过一个非常艰难的时期。

    让所有人都能够做到这一点实际上是比较不现实并且有讽刺意味的。Web 2.0 是一个真正平等的力量，虽然需要某种核心竞争力（能够让你保持持续成长的），但只要任何拥有创新想法的和优秀技术的人就能够叩开那扇拥有10亿听众的大门。

    触发网络效应：像建立一个病毒式的有效反馈机制（Viral Feedback Loop）那么简单吗？很惊讶吧，但事实就是这样的。

    Web 这张大网将我们的生活逐渐卷入其中。现在大部分的媒体形式都以存在与Web之上了，例如报纸、TV、电台、娱乐、音乐、艺术等等。还有我们日常的生活元 素：例如电子邮件、IM、日历、旅行计划、时间/任务管理，还有更多。他们也全部都在向Web迁移。我们当中的很大一部分都养成了在Web上花费大量时间 的习惯，通过超级链接的简单诱惑，能够将我们重新定向到任何一个拥有Web 2.0新体验的网站。所以说，如果有人喜欢你的新网站，他们会把网站的链接发给他们的朋友，他的朋友又会发给朋友的朋友，如此下去，一个简单的链接推荐会 卷入成百上千的用户进来。好的病毒式回馈机制会留住用户让他们再次回来，也会将他们的朋友给带过来。

    当然，在未来的几年内，能够触发像 MySpace、Facebook 和那些类似的社会网络的模式将会变得更加普遍，那么行业内原有的分裂很可能就会达到平衡，因为大家都走向了相同的模式。但是现在能够让Web2.0技术达 到平衡的秘密就是如何有效的利用网络效应来让你的网络得到增长，当然这仍然是一种艺术（请阅读我以前的一篇文章：如何去实现优秀的社会性软件）。这个底线是：Web 2.0 潜在的好处与坏处都是真正有意义的，这也意味着在这个行业里，面对这种情况你是不可能无动于衷的。

    我们已经谈论网络效应有几分钟了，那么它到底是什么呢？我以前曾经写过一篇这样的文章，那里面对与网络效应的核心描述是：当一样东西或者是服务在越多的用户使用它时能够产生越多的价值，很简单吧！就像电子邮件、IM、BLOG链接、甚至是 Web本身，但是这个描述中有一点不清楚的是网络效应所产生的价值应该如何来计算。现在有很多严格的研究和数学公式来揭示网络效应的所产生的几何级的增 长。就像 Robert Metcalfe 原创的用来描述计算机网络效应的 梅特卡夫定律，最近还有一些公式试图用更加精确的方式来计算网络效应所产生的价值。其中有一个值得注意的就是 David Reed 的 Reed’s Law ，还有与之齐名的 Odlyzko and Tilly’s Law。然而无论你相信哪一个是正确的，其结果都是非常清晰的：从最初的起点开始，价值的积累都会随着接入网络节点的数量呈指数级增长，详细的增长趋势你可以在下面的图表中看到。

    最后的结论：如果你有100万用户在访问你的网站，但你并没有利用这些用户诱发出网络效应 （例如让他们贡献内容同时让剩下的那些用户阅读并回馈那些贡献的内容），那么你就正在浪费那100万听众能够给你带来的巨大的价值。这个机会也就只会让给 那些能够利用他的用户产生网络效应的人了。如果他们通过一种很好的方式来帮助和你这边同样的用户之间建立连接，并利用这些连接建立一种病毒似的反馈机制， 那么他们就能够很快的超越你。新的站点可以通过聚合那些已经存在的内容输出，将这些内容里面所蕴含的价值提供给那些新的用户，而且这种模式已经有了成功的 案例。例如：Digg 就通过这种形式击败了 Slashdot。还有YouTube 正在使用这种类似的方式与传统的有线电视网络挑战。Google 也用这种模式将自己扮演成世界上最好的软件公司，当然还有其它很多例子。

    那么你现在应该如何去做呢？我们当中的许多人都会面临彼此之间相互竞争的情形，个人和组织都在使用相同的技术形式获取属于自己的优势、市场和其它任何能够获得的资源。近几年来，敏捷开发已经 教会我们 牢牢抓住反馈的迭代方式可以让我们开发的产品质量更好，开发效率也会更高。现在Web允许这种反馈方式在数量惊人的、非中心化的网络用户之间散播。那些突现 的内容、社区正在无经意的让系统（也包括你的企业在内，都会被卷入其中）的各个方面猛烈的制造着网络效应。学会如何去正确的疏通反馈和有建设性的利用网络 效应的结果，在不久的将来，这会是一个有意义的竞争优势，并且是一个想通过专业考验的必备核心能力。

    但这些真的开始了吗？竞争的大门将会被撕裂吗？是否公司都对此做出了回应？是的，这些已经都浮现出来了。仅仅一件事情就足以证明这些，我不断的看到传统机构尝试在他们的产品中融入像”MySpacing”那样的模式。从 Starwood Resorts（Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc）到主要的国家兴趣组都在创建由他们组成的虚拟商业性社区。这是一个构建或者彻底改造原有商业模式的迷人时刻。如果你还没开始，现在就是走向成果的 最佳起点。如果你担心无法领会到要点，看看整个世界的趋势，看看别人是如何去实施的。

    你打算如何在你的生活、工作和机构中使用Web 2.0呢？