工商银行 vs 花旗银行
本文首发于《上海证券报》，2009年3月23日A1理财版。
许多难以想象的事情都在金融海啸中发生了，在花旗银行的股价跌破1美元那天，我算了算，花旗的总市值不到60亿美元，折合人民币约400亿，一个工商银行的总市值可以折换30多个花旗银行。现在花旗的股价虽然反弹到3美元以上，工商银行的总市值还是高于10个花旗！
这不仅仅是两个银行的比较，而是金融业的两个商业模式：一个是昔日的金融业之首，一个是今日的金融业之首；一个代表现代金融超市的商业模式，一个代表传统存贷业务的商业模式。传统的存贷业务模式以货币的流动性为核心，经营存贷利率的“息口”，也就是净息差，为实体经济提供流动性，所以是“汇”通天下带动“货”通天下。而现代的金融超市以金融产品的设计制造和销售为核心，创造了多样化的金融产品，提高了金融资产的流动性。今天我们站在金融海啸的废墟中评价两个商业模式，是否意味着金融业在产品创新方面的努力完全走错了方向？如果是这样，工商银行和花旗银行的差别就好比是一场“龟兔赛跑”，比赛的结果是稳健保守的乌龟战胜了聪明过度的兔子。
美联储主席伯南克最近预测经济衰退将在年终触底，他说，之后大型银行的倒闭或国有化已经不会发生了，这是花旗银行的股价触底反弹的原因之一。但可以肯定的是，花旗银行虽然逃过了这场劫难，死里逃生后的花旗银行已经不是原来的花旗银行了，这就意味着现代的金融超市模式将作为历史的借鉴，从此走进历史。在花旗银行的盛衰之中，我们可以借鉴的应该是什么呢？
首先，金融创新的方向并没有错，错在金融杠杆率的使用超过了我们的风险控制能力。格林斯潘最近讲过，金融业对风险内控的过度自信来自于现代投资学之父马科维茨的理论，马科维茨教授以投资组合理论获得了诺贝尔经济学奖，在理论上突破了金融风险管理的瓶颈。但是现在，金融海啸爆发的过程证明，至少在目前的风险管理实践中，金融杠杆率过高所包含的风险失控问题并没有真正解决。
其次，虚拟经济不能完全脱离实体经济。金融是为实体经济服务的经济杠杆，而金融杠杆的力量必须借助于实体经济提供的“支点”才能放大，一旦实体经济的“支点”动摇了，金融杠杆的力量就会突然消失，甚至转化为对金融业和实体经济的破坏力量。在这种情况下，无论多么科学严谨的金融风险管理技能也会失去效用。
第三，所谓“一站式”的金融服务是一个可望而不可及的理想目标。作为花旗银行标识的“一把伞”曾经代表了一代金融家的梦想，在一把伞之下提供全方位的金融服务似乎是最理想的金融超市。但由于“一站式”的金融服务几乎必然导致少数金融巨头的市场垄断，特别是在金融产品的设计越来越复杂的理财产品市场中，金融巨头的品牌效应逐渐替代了严格的金融监管和认真的产品鉴别，许多客户在无法理解这些金融产品的时候，实际上只是在挑牌子，买承诺。结果是在金融超市的货架子上，名牌的金融“垃圾”鱼龙混杂，雷曼的“迷你毒债”就是一个活生生的案例。金融巨头之间的自相吹捧和自我评价不仅掩盖了金融交易的高风险，而且淹没了金融家的创新精神，金融产品的创新开始变味了，变成了无原则的承诺和大品牌的营销。
花旗银行在金融海啸中九死一生，给我们留下了一个行业巨头的盛衰故事，这对中国金融业的未来发展是一件好事。因为，我们丢掉了对明星企业的盲目崇拜，看到了老一代金融家所犯的错误，获得了金融创新的经验和教训。
从当前的经济形势分析，如果把花旗银行的死里逃生视为美国经济衰退开始探底的标志性事件之一，2009年的寒冬就已经开始回暖了。如果美国的经济衰退能够在今年内结束，中国经济的复苏之日也即将到来。理由如下：第一，中国的金融体系并没有受到冲击，工商银行的总市值N倍于花旗就是一个直接的明证；此外，宏观调控还有空间，目前的政策组合是扩张性财政和宽松的货币，也就是说还能在货币政策上再升一级，从财政货币政策的“一扩一松”升级为“双扩”组合；第三，采购经理指数（PMI）连续三个月回升，已经恢复到0.5以上，说明生产者的信心正在恢复；第四，股市房市双双回暖，交易量有明显上升，价格开始触底反弹，说明消费者的信心也在恢复；第五，国际能源和大宗原料价格暴跌使中国制造业的原材料成本大幅度下降，这对于扩大内需政策驱动的过剩产能“出口转内销”至关重要。
种种迹象表明，周期性的经济危机开始触底，突发性的经济下滑已经结束，在全球经济衰退探底的过程之中，如果没有局部战争等意外事件的发生，中国经济将领先各国走向复苏，股市的震荡筑底也就会提前到明年初结束。
2009-3-22于深圳
译文:
ICBC Vs CityBank
ICBC Vs CityBank
This article was first published on fisical version A1 ,ShangHai Securites News,March 23,2009
A lot of things that unimaginable was happened during fiscal tsunami,I counted the day when share price of CityBank declined to less than $1 with the whole market value less than 6 billion dollars,about 40 billion RMB,that the value of ICBC worth more than 30 times of Citybank's.Now price of CityBank bound to more than $3 a share,the total market value of ICBC is still more than 10 times of CityBank's value
It's not just comprison of two banks,but of two finiancial industry business models:one is head of the past,the other is head of today;one represent model of modern financial supermarket,one represent the traditional deposit and lending business model.Traditional deposit and lending model concentrated on currency liqidity,operating interest rates of deposit and lending which is also called net interest margin,providing luqidity for real economy,so it is liquidity of interest rates that lead to liquidity of goods.Modern financial supermarket was focused on design and produce of financial products,then to sale,which created various of financial products,improved liquidity of financial assets.Today we stand on financial tsunami ruins to assess business models of two,does it means that financial industry's effort on products innovation was in the wrong direction?If it's ture,difference between ICBC and CityBank is the same as it between turtle and rabbit during competition, the result of the race is the prudent and conservative turtle defeat the over-smart rabbit.
Federal reserve chairman Ben Bernanke had predicted recently that the economic decline would reach on the bottom by the end of this year,he said,things would not happen as closure or nationalization of big banks which is one of the reasons that share price of CityBank bound from the bottom.But CityBank is certainly not the former one,although it had escaped from this disaster,which showed us that modern financial supermarket model would stay in the history,and be a lesson of history.What should we learn form the rise and fall of CityBank
First of all,it's not the direction of financial innovation but the use of financial leverage which have been out of our control of risk wrong.Greenspan have said recently,the over-confidence of internal risk control was got from Markowiz'theory,who is father of modern investment study,Markowiz won Nobel prize by his porfolio theory,which breakthrough bottleneck of financial risk management in theory.But now,process of financial tsunami outbreak proved that at least in today's risk management pracitse that problems as out control of risk which resulted from over-high financial leverage have not realy resolved.
Secondly,virtual economy can't be completely divorcied from real economy.Finance is fianancial leverage that work for real economy,effect of financial leverage can only be enlarged by Fulcrum which provided by real economy,once the flucrum shaked,the fianancial leverage effect will disappeared,or even translated into forces that can destroy fianancial industry and real economy.At this circumstance,fiscal risk management will lost its affect no matter how rigorous it is
The third,so-called One-Stop fiscal service is an ideal prosperctive that easy to say but hard to approach.Umbrella which sybolized CityBank had once represented dreams of a generation,it seems to be the best financial supermarket to provide all kinds of service under this unbrella.But as One-Stop fiscal service can almost surely leat to monopolies in the market by several fiancial giants,especially in the market of financial management as fiscal products design become more and more complicated,fianancial giants' brand effectiveness garadually replaced strict financial supervision and serious products identification,as customers can't understand this products,they are acctually pick brand and buy commitments.Finally on shelves in financial supermarket,stands various fiscal trashes with well-known brands,Lemon's toxic mini bond is a lively example.Flatters among fiancial giants and self-assessments not only covered high risks during fiscal trade,but also flooded financiers' innovative spirit,financial products changed in to promises without priciples or big brands'marketing
CityBank survived from this deathful fianancial tsunami,a story of an industry giant's rise and fall was left behind ,it's a good thing for future financial industry development in China.For the reason that we have learn not to blindly worship famous enterpises and realized mistakes make by older generations,hence gained experience in fiscal innovation
To analyze from the present economic situation,if CityBank's alive from death could be seen as one of the lankmark cases which showed bottom of the economic recession,it is getting warm in the cold winter of 2009.China's economic recovery is going to happen as if American economic recession would ended in this year.Reasons as following:chinese economy system haven't been attacked as ICBC worth several times' more than CityBank is an obviously evidence;what's more,there still place for macro-control ,the present policy is constitued of expansionary fiscal and accomodatively monetary,which means we could change from now one expansionary with the other accomodatively to both expansionary;thirdly,Purchasing Manager Index have rised successively the third month,now is above 0.5,which means producers' confidence is recovering;forthly,both stock market and real estate market is recovering,there is a marked increase in trading volume and price begin to bound from the bottom,note also restore of consurmers' confidence;the fifth,decline of international energy and bulk ray materials lead to significant decline in raw material prices for manufacturing in China,it's crucial for excess capability to transform from export to domestic which is drived by expanding domestic demand policy.
Lots of signs have showed that cyclical economic crisis is approach the bottom,sudden economic resscession have ended,if there aren't accidents like regional war happening,China will lead the other countries to recovery during the process of global economic recession to detect the bottom,and stock market shocks will also advanced to the bottom ahead of time at the beginning of next year
March 22,2009.ShenZhen