Do you read horoscopes? If so, you're not only wasting your time - you're wasting precious brain cells. Come on, do you
really believe that half a billion people in the world are going to have the same day/week/month? (Because your horoscope isn't exactly personalized - it applies to a twelfth of the world's population).
Horoscope writers use a lot of tricks to make you believe what they've said. Here are some of the top ones - and some reasons why, even if you
do trust the writers, you should still ignore your horoscope anyway.
We Believe A Personality Analysis - Even If It Doesn't Really Apply To Us
A famous experiment was carried out in 1948, by the psychologist Bertram R. Forer. He gave his students a personality test, then gave them all exactly the same "results" (which he'd assembled from horoscopes):
You have a need for other people to like and admire you, and yet you tend to be critical of yourself. While you have some personality weaknesses you are generally able to compensate for them. You have considerable unused capacity that you have not turned to your advantage. Disciplined and self-controlled on the outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure on the inside. At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing. You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations. You also pride yourself as an independent thinker; and do not accept others' statements without satisfactory proof. But you have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others. At times you are extroverted, affable, and sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, and reserved. Some of your aspirations tend to be rather unrealistic.
The students were asked to rate the personality profile's accuracy from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most accurate rating. Guess what? The average rating was 4.26 -- despite the fact that every single student had received exactly the same rating. This has been dubbed the Forer effect, and it's been borne out by study after study ever since 1948.
So if you have one of those keyrings that tells you your personality based on your star sign or your name - ignore it.
We Give Too Much Importance To Co-incidences
You might be reading this and thinking "but, my horoscope has come true on several occasions!" Well, I'm afraid that's just an example of subjective validation - which means you pick up on co-incidences and assign them an incorrect meaning. This particularly happens when it's something that has personal meaning to you: when you want it to be more than a co-incidence.
Think of it this way. Have you ever had that experience when the phone rings, you think "it'll be John" and it is? Spooky, huh? But what about all the times when you think "it'll be John" ... and it isn't. You probably forget all about those.
Horoscopes Use Vague Statements and Generalizations
Here are a few statements taken from typical horoscopes (all from the Daily Mail newspaper).
"There will be ups and downs financially with nothing going quite to plan."
"But if you can give yourself space to ponder you may be able to answer one or two questions which have been bothering you recently. Nothing superficial will really help so you will need to focus and get right down to the nitty gritty."
"You won't suffer fools or slow coaches gladly and will express yourself firmly but forcefully at times. Just don't go a step too far since you may want support when you get into a muddle towards mid month."
Notice anything in common? These statements could apply to anyone:
- Aren't everyone's finances up and down (especially during current times)?
- DLM readers probably know that getting to the heart of tricky questions in life involves focusing and pondering, not just looking for a quick fix. This is good advice - but why on earth would it only apply to one particular star sign?
- Do any of us suffer fools and slow coaches gladly? And don't we all get into a muddle on a regular basis? "Towards mid month" is vague enough to cover at least a ten or twelve day period, too.
The Big Reason You Shouldn't Place Your Trust In Horoscopes
Even if you're a horo-sceptic like me, imagine for a moment that you do believe every word of a horoscope or personality profile. You could end up hugely limiting yourself because of it. For example, if your horoscope warns of money problems ahead, you might get anxious, or even use it as an excuse to spend unnecessarily, thinking that hard times are inevitable.
One of the horoscopes I looked at included the line: "You'll occupy yourself happily spending money on all manner of frivolities since you reckon you need pampering." Now, how many of us have the self-discipline not to use this as an excuse to think "yes, my horoscope is right, I should buy that new CD/shirt/game ... even though I want to pay off my loans".
You could be subconsciously sabotaging yourself because you believe in a nonsense personality profile. Perhaps you think you're an impetuous and sometimes angry person, because of your star sign - and this is preventing you from dealing with your hot-headed nature (which might be half-imagined anyway). Or maybe you think that you're shy, because your star sign's always told you so - and you've never made an effort to overcome this.
None of us are "stuck" with our foibles: we can all improve ourselves, break bad habits and establish good ones. Instead of reading horoscopes, find some truly worthwhile reading (Dumb Little Man is a great place to start - and the blogs linked to in the Blender) that can actually help you improve your life.
What do you think about horoscopes? Whether you agree with me completely or think I'm an idiot, let me know your views in the comments!
 | Written on 3/12/2009 by Ali Hale. Ali runs Alpha Student, a blog packed with academic, financial and practical tips to help students get the most out of their time at university. | Photo Credit: Yellow Mellow |
译文:
为什么我们要忽视星座呢？
你会去阅读有关占星的书吗？如果答案是肯定的，那你不仅是在浪费自己的时间，你也在浪费自己宝贵的脑细胞。清醒过来吧，难道你真的相信世界上五亿的人口都是同一天/同一星期/同一个月？（因为你的星座并不是单独属于你自己的——每一个星座的人数都占了世界人口的十二分之一）
星座作家使用了很多骗术让你相信他们所说的话。这里有一些比较热门的——个中的一些原因，即使你确实很相信那些作者说的话，但是你还是应该尽可能地忽略掉自己的星座。
我们相信那些所谓的个人分析——尽管那些东西看起来并不是很贴近我们的实际情况
1948年，心理学家伯伦特 R.佛瑞进行了一项著名的试验。他让学生们做了一套性格测试题，并且给了他们几乎相同的测试结果（这些测试结果是他从星座书上收集到的）：
你需要其他人的关爱和敬仰，但是你对自己却始终是抱着批判的态度。同时你也有一些人格缺陷，但是你自己就可以想办法来填补这些缺陷。 你会去想一些对自己无用的能力，因此也忽视自己的优势。你表面上很有原则，自我控制能力也很好，但其实你的内心是彷徨不安并缺乏安全感的。有时你会非常怀疑自己是否做了正确的决定，或是做了正确的事情。你喜欢确定的变数和多样化的东西，如果自己被约束和限制所包围的话，你会感到非常的沮丧。你认为自己是个独立的思考者，不会接受别人那些缺乏令你满意的证据的言辞。但是对别人过分透露自己的信息是不明智的。有时候你是外向，友善，善于交际的，但是另一些时候，你却是内向，警惕，冷漠的。你还会有一些不切实际的想法。
学生们被要求去给这些性格测试题的准确度打分，从1分到5分，5分代表最准确。猜猜结果怎样？测试题的平均准确度打到了4.26——尽管每个学生得到的是几乎一样的答案。这就是所谓的佛瑞效应 从1948年开始就已经被一连串的试验证实过了。
所以如果你的一项分析说你的性格与星座和姓名有关——直接忽视掉它。
我们太过关注事物同时发生的概率
也许你会阅读到这些内容，也会想“可是我的性格测试在某些方面是对的！” OK，我认为那只是主观意识的典型例子而已——意思就是你了解事情同时发生的概率，但却赋予了他们错误的含义。这尤其会发生在当一些事情对你有特殊含义的时候：你在等待着比事情同时发生概率更高的事情出现。
这样想想，你是否有这样的经历，当电话铃响的时候，你会认为“肯定是约翰！”，结果是对的？感到恐惧吗，恩？但是如果每次你都想“肯定是约翰！”...可结果却不是。也许这样你就会忘掉之前有关的一切。
星座测试使用模稜两可和大众化的语言
这里有一些来自典型的星座测试的分析（选择每日邮报）
“你的经济将会大起大落，你对最近想做的事情都没有一个计划。”
“如果你肯给自己时间去思考一下最近一直烦扰你的一到两个问题，没有什么东西能真正帮到你，你需要关注一些实质性的事情。”
“你不必快乐的当一个傻瓜或是迟钝的人，你有时会被迫去表达自己的情感。在月中旬的时候你遇上了一堆麻烦事，如果你需要支持，就不要走得太远。”
不要去相信那些所谓的有共同点的事情？这些说辞适用于任何人： - 是否每个人的经济都会大起大落（尤其是近阶段）？
- 读者也许了解那些深入生活的怪题中包括关注和沉思，并不仅仅是寻找一个锦囊妙句。这是一条很好的建议——但为什么只适用于特定的一个星座呢？
- 我们会很愉快地享受愚蠢和迟钝吗？ 我们会有规律地陷入烦恼中吗？ “月中旬”也表述的足够模糊不清，它足足涵盖了十天或二十天。
不能相信星座的主要原因 尽管你跟我一样是个怀疑论者，但请假想一下你确实是相信星座或个性特征分析中的每一个字，你会因为它而结束过多的自我约束。例如，如果你的星座分析说不久的将来你会面临经济危机，那么你可能会感到紧张，甚至将钱花在一些不必要的地方，心想着在困难时期这是不可避免的。
我曾经看过的一个星座分析有这样一句话：“因为你觉得自己需要放纵一下了，因此你会轻率地花钱。”现如今我们有多少人有自我约束能力，我们不会用一些幼稚的想法来充当借口：“是吖，我的星座分析是对的，我应该买下那些新的CD，衬衫，游戏碟... 我甚至想立刻还清我的贷款。”
你应该下意识地去破坏自己的一些想法，因为你相信了那些荒唐的性格分析。 也许你觉得自己是个冲动易怒的人，因为那是你的星座决定的——这就阻止了你试图去改变自己急躁的性格（要么你也是想想就算了）。或者也许你觉得自己很害羞，因为你的星座分析就是这么说的——因此你从没想过努力去克服这种现状。
我们不会被自己的小缺点击倒：我们都可以提高自己的素质，克服缺点，形成新的优点。 用阅读实用的书籍去代替阅读星座分析，找寻真正值得看的东西（Dumb Little Man是个很好的开端，这个博客还可以链接到其他的许多博客），这些才是真正能帮助你提高自己生活质量的东西。
为什么要去思考星座分析呢？不论你是完全相信我还是觉得我是一个白痴，请在注释里告诉我你的想法。