So what kinds of numbers are we talking about? GDP next year will be about $15 trillion, so 1% of GDP is $150 billion. The natural rate of unemployment is, say, 5% — maybe lower. Given Okun’s law, every excess point of unemployment above 5 means a 2% output gap.

Right now, we’re at 6.5% unemployment and a 3% output gap – but those numbers are heading higher fast. Goldman predicts 8.5% unemployment, meaning a 7% output gap. That sounds reasonable to me.

So we need a fiscal stimulus big enough to close a 7% output gap. Remember, if the stimulus is too big, it does much less harm than if it’s too small. What’s the multiplier? Better, we hope, than on the early-2008 package. But you’d be hard pressed to argue for an overall multiplier as high as 2.

When I put all this together, I conclude that the stimulus package should be at least 4% of GDP, or $600 billion.

That’s twice what the unreliable rumor says. So if there’s any truth to the rumor, my advice to the powers that be (or more accurately will be in a couple of months) is to think hard – you really, really don’t want to lowball this.

那么我们讨论的是哪种数据呢？明年的国内生产总值大约为15000亿美元。那么1%的国民生产总值则为150亿。据说，自然失业率会达到5%——也许会低点儿。鉴于奥肯定律，失业率每增长5%则意味着存在2%的产出缺口。

当前，我们的失业率为6.5%而产出缺口为3%——而且这些数据正急剧增长着。Goldman预计失业率会达到8.5%，而产出缺口为7%。我认为这合乎常理。

因此我们需要一个足够大的经济刺激来填合这7%的产出缺口。记住，如果刺激越大，它给经济带来的危害就越小。那乘数如何呢？（乘数是自发总需求增加所引起的国民收入增加的倍数——译者注）。我们希望会比前一个好——2008年的刺激计划。然而你还应力争使综合乘数达到2.

当我综合各因素考虑时，我认为这个刺激计划应能带动4%的GDP，即6000亿美元的增长。

这是那些不可靠的流言所说的两倍。因此如果留言是对的，我建议政府当局应多下点功夫考虑这一事情——如过你真的真的不想向人虚报实情的话。