2009年04月27日 新世纪周刊
认为罗斯福新政挽救了美国经济，这是一个误解 ■郎咸平
今天的金融海啸就像美国1929年一样，当时美国股市的市值由891亿美元一家伙跌到了150亿美元，跌去了80％的市值。而失业率高达16％。这是非常可怕的。结果一个伟大的总统上任了——罗斯福，很多人认为他挽救了美国经济。
其实，我在美国念书的时候也是这么被教育的。当时老师跟我讲，他怎么挽救美国经济，他说美国失业人口是非常多，非常严重。因此美国政府就请几个 工人过来挖一个洞，挖完洞之后再把它填回去。他说由于工人挖洞，他肚子饿就要去买面包，面包店关门了，他要买面包，面包店为了卖面包给他，得重新开门，重 新开门就得生炉子来烤面包，为了生火就必须去买煤炭或者木柴，同时要买面粉、买糖。由于他要买面粉、买糖、买木柴、买煤炭，所以制造面粉、糖、煤炭跟木柴 的工厂都必须得开工。由于他们必须得开工，因此他们得聘用更多的人来帮他们生产面粉、糖、木柴跟煤炭，这些工人就业之后拿了钱又要去吃牛排了，然后卖牛肉 又起来了。所以这个环环相扣，你就发现，工人挖洞跟填洞的过程可以使面包店开业，可以使面粉工厂开业，而面粉工厂开业又刺激了物流业，因为你要把面粉送到 这个厂。然后前面又刺激到农民的生产欲望，糖也是一样。木柴跟煤炭都是一样，你会刺激到，一个一个行业往上走。那就业人口就增加了，消费就更增加了，他们 更要吃面包了。还买牛油，再买果酱，就透过这一种复杂的连锁反应，美国经济就这样复苏了。
经过很多人的研究，发现我前面讲的故事呢，都是错的。为什么是错的？从1929年、1930年一直到二战爆发的前一年，我们看看美国经济是怎么 样的情况。1930年左右的美国失业率是16％，10年之后，到了二战之前，失业率提高到17％。更精确一点，是从15.9％到17.2％，失业率更严重 了。而1929年之前没有萧条的时刻，失业率是3％。所以从1929年开始一直到第二次世界大战之前，罗斯福这种挖洞的政策是失败的，没有增加就业量。
第二个，私人投资占GDP的比重。在1930年左右是16％，到了二战之前跌到了14％。而且更可怕的是，1938年美国发生第二次经济大恐慌，历 史上给它取了个名字叫做罗斯福萧条。因为这一切都是他造成的。也就到了1938年二战的前一两年，美国的经济还是处于罗斯福萧条状况。
所以，前面我老师讲的故事，统统都是错的。你想透过建两条高速公路拆两条高速公路，挖两个洞填两个洞，就使经济复苏？不可能。因为整个经济体系 过于复杂，高速公路、桥梁、挖洞，它所影响的行业不是没有，确实有。可是微乎其微，因为影响的行业太少，同时这些建筑工人、挖洞工人，他薪水是很低的，这 么低的薪水你想去透过他去买面包，再来刺激造糖工业、造面粉工业，煤炭、木柴，这是不可能的。因为他们的消费能力太低，他们的薪水太低。所以到最后你发 现，我们投资基础建设也好，挖洞也好，都是一个幻影。你想透过这种方法来拉动经济是不可能的，至少罗斯福没做到。
罗斯福不但没有做到，反其道而行之，他透过所谓的中下级人口微薄的薪水拉动经济没有做成功，那么他在1935年干了一件非常错的事情，就是把美 国人的最高税率由24％提高到了79％，也就是赚100块你要付79块的税。大家谁还投资？大家都不投了。而且79％，79块钱都去了政府口袋里面，那么 政府为什么征那么高的税呢？因为政府有大量的基础建设，公共建设要投资。花了大量的钱，没办法，只能提高税率，从而形成恶性循环，造就了1938年的罗斯 福萧条。
其实美国经济怎么恢复的？最重要的原因就是二战，美国参战。你别听他讲，为了民主、自由，算了。真正的原因是什么？经济萧条不行了，这是我对他 的评估。失业人口17％，多么危险的社会动荡，干脆都去打仗。美国参战之后，透过各种产品的需求，它消耗特别快。比如说一架飞机上面，它不只是一个机械的 问题，而是螺丝钉、玻璃、塑胶?? 因此对于战争而言，它整个需求就不是挖洞工人的一点薪水去买面包那么小的需求量，范围也不会那么窄，而是对于整个美国的工业，各方面的需求，因为所有的工 业都需要才能够造一架战斗机。而这种第二次世界大战所引发的对于各种行业的需求大幅上涨的结果，挽救了美国经济。
当然很多人会问我，那你觉得现在美国会不会发动一场战争来解决问题？我认为不会，因为目前不是当时那个时代。发动战争不是这么简单的，打打伊拉 克跟伊朗弥补不来62万亿，你必须发动一场世界大战，那是不可能。在没有战争情况之下，美国如何解决问题，据说这就是奥巴马总统头发变白的真正原因。
译文:
Larry Lang: Obama is not Roosevelt
April 27, 2009 News Magazine
It would be wrong to say that Roosevelt save the economy of America.
■Larry Lang
The financial tsunami now is just as the one in 1929, when the value of American stock market fell straight from $89.1bn to $15bn, declining by 80%, and the unemployment rate reached 16%. It was under such a terrible situation that Roosevelt, the great President who was widely considered to have saved the economy of America, came into office.
That's what I was taught during college in America. The teacher then told me about how Roosevelt saved Amerca's economy. He said that there was such a large unemployment population that things were really serious. Since the government hired several workers to dig a hole and stuff it up afterwards. The once shut down bakeries reopened because the hungry workers went to buy some bread. Then the factories of flour, sugar, firewood and coal all started up again, for the bakeries needed flour, sugar, firewood and coal to bake bread. Therefore, those factories had to hire more wokers to meet the need of their products. The workers who got paid had money for beafsteak again, and, as a result, beaf butchers shops reopened. With one linked with another, as you can see, the process of workers digging and filling holes leaded to bakeries reopening and flour factories restarting. The demand of delivery of flour then stimulated the logistics industry to restore. At the same time, famers' desire to work is also lit up. The same thing was true of sugar, firewood, and coal. One by one these industries got stimulated and began to rise up. In this way, there was a increase in employment and consumption. People were more inclined to buy bread and even other things like butter and jams. The economy of America restored through such a series of complicated chain reactions.
After dozens of research, it's found that the story I tell above is not true at all. Why? Let's have a look at the economy of America from 1929 or 1930 to the year before World War II. The unemployment rate was 16% in 1930. It increased to 17% 10 years after that. To be more precise, it rose from 15.9% to 17.2%. However, the unemployment rate was just 3% before 1929, when the Great Depression hadn't come. In other words, Roosevelt's policy of digging holes failed to increase the unemployment rate during the prewar time.
Furthermore, the ratio of private investment to GDP, which was once 16% around 1930, dropped to 14%. What's worse, another great depression called Roosevelt Depression in history, hit America in 1938. The depression lingered over America till a couple of years before World War II broke out.
Therefore, the story told by my teacher is totally wrong. You wanted to restore the economy just by building and destroying several highways or digging and filling some holes? It is impossible. The economy system was very complicated. It couldn't be denied that some industries were affected by those highways, bridges and holes. However, with only a few industries affected, it made little difference. At the same time, the wages of those builders and their consuming capacity were so low that depending on them to buy bread, it was impossible to stimulate the industry of sugar, flour, coal and firewood. At last you would find that it was a daydream to fuel the economic growth by investing in infrastructure or digging holes. At least Roosevelt failed in this way.
Instead of so-called fueling the economic growth on the salary of middle and low-income population , Roosevelt made the life for them even harder by raising the tax from 24% to 79%, which meant that you had to pay $79 out of $100. Who would be willing to invest then? No body. Why did the government tax so heavily? It was because a great amount of money had to be put in infrastructure and public onnstructions, and more and more tax would be needed to meet budget. Thus, a vicious circle was made and contributed to the Roosevelt Depression in 1938.
How on earth did the economy of America recover? The most important reason lay in America's participation in World War II. Don't listen to the excuses like democracy or freedom. So what was the true answer. In my opinion, it was that the economy went beyond rescue. With 17% of the population unemployed, it was better to send them into army, otherwise it would cause social unrest. All kinds of products were consumed very fast in the war. For example, a plane was much more than a machine. Instead, it was made up of screws, glass, plastic and so on. As a result, the demand in war was far more than buying bread with the salary of hole-diggers, and the range was much wider as well. It created demand for the whole industry of America, which was involved in mading a battleplane. The great increase of demand broght by World War II saved America's economy.
Many people will ask "Do you think America will start a war to solve the problem?" I don't think so, for it is a different time now. It will be not easy to start a war. To meet the 62-trillion-dollar budget, America has to start another world war instead of just attacking Iraq or Iran. Without such a war, how can America find a solution? It is said that is why President Obama's hair turn grey?