That’s what independent journalist Michael Yon passed on to Glenn Reynolds in a phone call today.
Michael Yon just phoned from Baghdad, and reports that things are much better than he had expected, and he had expected things to be good. “There’s nothing going on. I’m with the 10th Mountain Division, and about half of the guys I’m with haven’t fired their weapons on this tour and they’ve been here eight months. And the place we’re at, South Baghdad, used to be one of the worst places in Iraq. And now there’s nothing going on. I’ve been walking my feet off and haven’t seen anything. I’ve been asking Iraqis, ‘do you think the violence will kick up again,’ but even the Iraqi journalists are sounding optimistic now and they’re usually dour.” There’s a little bit of violence here and there, but nothing that’s a threat to the general situation. Plus, not only the Iraqi Army, but even the National Police are well thought of by the populace. Training from U.S. toops has paid off, he says, in building a rapport.
Good news if true. Realistically, I think there will be occasional car bombs and IED’s going off in Iraq for the foreseeable future but, hopefully, the place won’t degenerate into civil war as it looked that it might a year or so ago.
And if it’s true I’d have no problem at all with removing at least some of the troops we have there. Frankly, I’m skeptical that productive use can be made of them in Afghanistan but that seems to be the way the political winds are blowing.
As to what we won in Iraq, I’m open to suggestion. Today, this minute, it’s certainly not the model of democracy that the invasion’s neo-con supporters were hoping for. Might it be in the future? Sure. The future is a long time.
The Shi’a Arabs are certainly significantly better off than they were under Saddam and the Kurds aren’t subject to the same dangers they were under Saddam. The Sunni Arabs not so much. The polls that I’ve seen suggest that quite a few Iraqis are nostalgic about the good old days. Maybe I’ll dive back into the Iraqi blogosphere to see what people are saying. The last time I checked the Iraqi blogosphere was virtually moribund.
Right now it appears to me that today’s Iraq is de facto partitioned into semi-autonomous Kurdish, Shi’a Arab, and Sunni Arab territories which, in the fullness of time, may learn to trust and depend on each other more. Or not.
At least there are fewer people being killed than were a year ago and fewer than might have been killed had things gone on as they were. That’s something we can all be thankful for.
译文:
“战争结束，我们胜利了”
这是今天自由新闻记者迈克尔·琼通过电话对格伦·雷诺兹所说的话。
迈克尔·琼刚刚从巴格达连线报道，他表示那儿的一切比他想象中的好，并且他希望这一切能够越来越好。“这儿不会再发生什么事了。我和美国第十山地师在一起，很多和我在一起的士兵来到这儿已经八个月了，但是他们中大约有半数人还没有使用过他们的武器。现在我们的所在地是巴格达南部，过去这里曾是伊拉克战争局势最糟糕的地方之一。现在这里没有新的战火了。我在这附近走了下，也没有发现什么情况。我问过伊拉克人民，“你认为还会发生暴力时间吗？”，甚至连平时经常阴郁的伊拉克记者的回答也十分乐观。”这儿时不时会有一些小的暴力事件发生，不过这并不影响总的局势。还有，不仅仅是伊拉克军队，国家警察在伊拉克民众中的印象也是很不错的。他表示，美军的训练得到了回报----这儿的融洽就说明了这一点。
如果这是真的，那么这真是一个好消息。实际上，我认为未来在伊拉克肯定还会时不时发生些汽车炸弹和简易炸弹爆炸事件，但是，有理由相信，这里不会再沦为内战之地，不会再像大概一年前它看起来的那样。
如果这是真的，我就会毫不怀疑地认为一些我们驻扎在那的美军会被撤走。坦白的说，对于大面积在阿富汗驻军的行为我很是怀疑，但是这似乎就是政府的惯常之举。
至于我们在伊拉克到底赢到了什么，我希望能广泛听取大家的意见。今天，在这时刻，摆在我们眼前的这种明主肯定不是当初支持入侵的新保守党人所希望的明主。也许未来他们能看到他们所希望的明主？答案是肯定的，不过那也肯定是很久以后的事了。
现在什叶派阿拉伯人比起当初在萨达姆统治下明显富裕了许多，库尔德人也不用再时时处于当初萨达姆统治下的危险之中。逊尼派阿拉伯人并非如此。民意调查显示，许多伊拉克人都怀念过去美好的日子。也许我应该去伊拉克博客去看看人们在说些什么。实际上，我上次去伊拉克博客的时候并没有发现上面有什么新的内容。
事实上，今天呈现在我眼前的伊拉克已经分裂为不同区域，分别由半自治的库尔德人、什叶派阿拉伯人和逊尼派阿拉伯人控制着。也许时机成熟之际，他们能学会更好地互相信任与相互依靠，也或许不会这样。
至少，比起一年前来，现在已经没有那么多人被杀害和将会被杀害。人们也不会像一年前那样失去那么多东西。对于这些，我们必须要心存感激。