I'm old enough to remember when a piece of bubble gum was a penny. In fact, it was a penny for most of my youth--and had been a penny for a couple decades before I was born. As inflation began to heat up in the 1960s, though, the Topps company first shrank the size of a piece of gum, and then eventually had to raise the price.
I talked last week about the costs everyone faces trying to deal with unpredictable price increases and changing product sizes. This post is about some special cases.
Uncertainty cuts sales
One problem that businesses face is that customer uncertainty means some business is completely lost: A customer who has $10 in his pocket might decide not to eat at a restaurant that had charged $9-something last week, simply out of fear that the cost had gone up. Bad enough if the price had, in fact, gone up--but even worse if the price was still the same, but the customer didn't want to take the chance.
Businesses try various things to fight this. One is simply to advertise prices as a way to reduce uncertainty. Since it's hard to remember whole price lists, companies start giving whole categories of items a consistent price--creating "dollar menus," selling $5 foot-long subs, and so on.
The downside of advertising prices--and of making them easier to remember--is that it makes the prices harder to change. It's one thing if you raise the price of your hamburgers from 87 to 89 cents. It's an altogether different thing to charge $1.02 for the stuff on your dollar menu. The result is sticky prices--prices that are hard to change.
Sticky prices
That was the problem Topps had with it's one-cent bubble gum. Their only choices were to hold the line or to double the price. It's a cruel irony that the exact same inflation that pressures companies to advertise their prices to reduce the losses caused by price uncertainty, turns right around to punish them again once they do so, because advertising makes their prices sticky--making it all the harder for the seller to make the small price increases that let them stay even with inflation.
Another example would be the newspaper. The way they're sold--in machines that don't give change and at newsstands where you put down your money, grab a paper, and go--makes it convenient for people to pay an even amount. My local paper costs 50 cents, and it's just not practical for the newspaper to push the price up to the 53 or 54 cents that would bring them even with recent inflation. They probably won't even raise the price to 60 cents, although they could. I bet they'll hold the line as best they can until they simply have to make a change, and then they'll go up to 75 cents.
In general, I expect we'll see much the same from the dollar menu. Over the next few months we'll see all the same little tricks--servings will get smaller, and items with expensive ingredients will drop off the dollar menu. Pretty soon they'll quit advertising the dollar menu (making up some new alternative: "$4 feasts" perhaps). Once a minimally decent interval has passed, the dollar menu will be gone.
Someday, we will once again have a currency that holds its value. Then both prices and package sizes will be stable. I'm ready.
译文:
黏性价格
我记得以前泡泡糖是一便士一块.从小时候开始就是,甚至我出生前几十年里一直都是.自从60年代通货膨胀开始,托普斯公司(TOPPS)公司的泡泡糖就比以前小,到最后只能提价.
上礼拜我谈过每人都要面对的成本问题,并且大家都在应对不可预测的价格上涨,随之改变产品大小.这个帖子就是谈几个特别的例子.
不确定性影响销售量
商家面临的一个问题就是,顾客的不确定性就意味着一些商机的绝对失去.当一个顾客兜里揣着10美元,他可能不会去一家上礼拜还是定价在9美元左右的饭店,因为怕会涨价.虽然涨价不是件好事,但更糟的是,这个人放弃了这次机会,而价格还是一样的.
因此,商家为此也想了很多办法.其中一个就是把价格公布出来,减少这种不确定性.尽管很难记住所有的价格单,商家还是为所有各类商品给出了一个固定价格--所谓的"一美元菜单",卖5美元一份,一英尺长的SUB(潜艇型三明治),和其他类似的东西.
公布价格,虽然容易被记住,但缺点就是很难变动.你把汉堡包的价格从87美分提高到89美分是一回事.而在价格单上开出1.02美元的价则是另一回事了.这种价格就叫黏性价格--一种很难变动的价格.
黏性价格
托普斯公司(TOPPS)公司的一美分泡泡糖也是这样.他们唯一的选择就是保持原有的价格,要不就是把价格翻一翻.通货膨胀下,商家迫于压力会公布价格,以减少其不确定性带来的损失,也正是因为同样的通货膨胀,一旦他们这样做了,又是一次打击.这是何等的讽刺.因为公布就粘住价格,使商家很难再做提升,只能在通货膨胀下也保持原来的价格.
另一个例子可以说是报纸.一种是不找零的贩卖机器.另一个是报摊.付钱,拿报纸,走人--该是多少付多少,方便的很.我们这里的报纸卖50美分,假如因为最近的通货膨胀,把它的价格升到53或54是不太实际的.尽管他们可以抬到60美分,但他们也不会的.我打赌,他们会尽量保持这个价格，直到没办法了,才会抬到75美分.
通常,我觉得我们会从价格表上看到许多相同的东西.以后的五个月里我们会看到那些相同的伎俩--提供的服务少了,性价比高的产品也会从价格表上消失.很快，他们也会撤掉"一美元菜单"(做一些新的选择:也许是"4美元一餐").一旦形势稍好转,这份也会被撤掉.
某天,我们的货币又会重新恢复它的价值.那时,价格和商品大小也会稳定下来的.我也时刻准备着这一天的到来.