More than half the people of the world rely on rice for food. This proportion is constantly rising as people moving out of poverty can afford to substitute rice for less desirable grains - this has happened to 100 million Chinese who have moved into cities and relative middle class.
Yet the amount of rice is not growing to meet the increasing population and demand for the plant. Limits to suitable land, drought and less predictable water management, together with the move towards growing plants for biofuels are all having a negative impact on the amount of rice being grown. Last year, the total amount of rice grown increased but not by so much as to meet increased demand, resulting in depleted stocks in warehouses. This year, the total amount of rice grown is scheduled to be less than last year. People, unsure of the future, inevitably think about hoarding what rice they can get and so go and buy whatever is available. This makes the situation worse and, although panic buying has not yet quite broken out, there is no guarantee that it will not do so in the future.
Already, governments in China, India, Egypt, Cambodia and Vietnam have imposed some form of export ban or similar measure. The government of Thailand, which is the world's largest rice exporter, is discussing means of preventing hoarding and is subsidizing the provision of lower-quality rice for poorer people. Rumours of a potential rice shortage are rife, although officially discounted out of hand. For those peasant farmers in northern provinces such as Chiang Mai, where fighting between neighbouring villages for access to water has already broken out, the idea of a rice shortage is a very frightening one. Even in a country developing as well and as rapidly as Thailand, the line between survival and disaster for the millions of subsistence farmers can be very narrow indeed. Every year, flooding causes many farmers and their families to lose everything they have and then there is a wave of suicides.
So far, there are no reports of rice riots in Asia, although the situation surrounding rice distribution by government agencies has been described as tense. However, if the projected 40% increase in rice prices (as well as other foodstuffs) does take place, then there will be many desperate people. The poorest will of course suffer the most. The proportion of their income spent on food is already very high and is set to get higher still. Money will have to be saved on education, health and transportation. Those poor, even if they can survive the crisis, will have no chance to escape from poverty.
译文:
咄咄逼近的大米危机
在世界上,超过一半的人把大米当作主食。随着人们逐渐地脱离贫困，这一比例还在不断的增加。他们用大米来取代其他那些不太理想的谷物。有将近1亿处于中产阶级的中国人搬进了城市居住，而这一现象往往发生在这一人群当中。
然而，谷物的产量并没有随着需求的增加而增加。土地使用的限制、干旱、不可预测的用水管理，以及生物燃料农作物的增加，都对大米产量的增加产生不良的影响。去年，大米产量的总体增长远远不能满足不断增长的需求。这也导致了粮食储物的减少耗尽。今年，大米计划的增长产量较去年相比还要更少。人们对于未来局势难以判断，不可避免的，他们就会尽可能的将他们能够得到的大米储藏起来。这样他们就会把他们能够买到的大米都买回来。虽然疯狂的采购还没有完全爆发，但在这样的情况下，局势变得更加紧张。没人能够担保以后不会发生这样的情况。
中国、印度、埃及、柬埔寨和越南等国的政府已经开始采取相似的手段，禁止一些粮食的出口。作为全球大米的最大出口商的泰国，其政府也开始商讨关于防止储藏粮食的方法，并且已经减少了对贫苦人口的次级大米的分配。尽管官方马上对潜在的粮食短缺进行质疑，这样的谣言仍然非常普遍。那些在北部城市的的农民，如清迈，对于水资源的抢夺已经爆发了。粮食短缺的想法真的是非常可怕的。在像泰国这样发展非常迅速的国家中，对于那些农民来说，生死就在一线之间。每年，洪水将使得许多农民和他们的家人流离失所、一无所有，接着就出现自杀的狂潮。
至今为止，尽管亚洲政府机关分配粮食的情形非常紧张，但还没有暴乱发生。 然而，大米的价格预计会有40%的涨幅（包括其他一些事物),如果这一情形真的发生，就会有很多人会感到绝望。最贫穷的人将遭受最大打击。 他们在实物上所花去的工资比重已经很高，以后会更高。在教育、医疗和交通运输上还必须省下一笔钱。那些穷苦的人们即使能够在这次危机中生存下来，也无法逃离贫困的魔咒。