The weather may be cold and wet, but in the rich world's financial markets it is beginning to feel like August all over again. Credit spreads have widened and shares are pitching from gloom to elation as investors look to the Federal Reserve for solace. The anxiety is unmistakable. But this time the scare is about more than bad mortgage loans and their baleful effect on the credit markets. America may be falling into recession. And a new fear now stalks the markets: that the dollar's slide could spin out of control.
A full-blown dollar crisis on top of a credit crunch and a weakening economy would be frightening. It would send financial markets reeling and tie the hands of the Fed, perhaps forcing it to raise interest rates even as recession looms. The sky-high euro would soar further, choking off Europe's growth. Political tensions would also rise. Already Airbus has called the dollar's decline “life-threatening” and France's president, Nicolas Sarkozy, has given warning of “economic war”.
At worst, the shadows could darken further. For half a century the dollar has been the hegemonic currency. A large slice of global trade is counted in dollars. Central banks hold most of their foreign-exchange reserves in dollars, a boon for America that has allowed it to issue debt more cheaply. That dominance has survived dollar slides before, as in the late 1970s and mid-1980s. But now, with the euro as an alternative, the fear is of a sudden shift in the global monetary system, with investors switching quickly from one currency to the other.
So far, this remains only a fear. Although the dollar has been falling at quite a lick，it has seen no chaotic slump, but a slide interspersed, as this week, with brief rallies. Americans' expectations of future inflation have not yet risen much. Yields on government bonds have fallen: clearly, investors do not yet expect higher premiums for safe American assets. Whether disaster strikes depends on what exactly is driving the dollar down and on how policymakers react.
译文:
美元危机全面爆发
在这阴冷潮湿的天气，大国金融市场却开始感觉重回酷热的八月。随着投资者对美联储进一步安抚政策翘首以盼，债券息差有所扩大，股价也开始回升。这种焦虑情绪是显而易见的。然而，这次的恐慌情绪不仅仅源于次级债危机以及其对信贷市场的恶劣影响：美国经济有可能陷入衰退的境地。并且，新一轮恐慌正威胁到整个市场：即美元的下挫可能到了无法控制的地步。
信贷紧缩和经济疲软，加之全面爆发的美元危机，使得人心惶惶。这将会导致金融市场进一步动荡，并限制美联储的动作，面临经济衰退时，美联储不得不进一步加息。这样使得本已居高不下的欧元价格将继续飙升，遏止了欧洲经济的增长。政治气氛也因此变得愈加紧张。空中客车公司已经称美元的贬值为“危及生命”，而法国总统萨科奇也将可能导致的“经济战争”予以警告。
最糟糕的是，阴霾可能进一步笼罩。美元处于霸权地位的情况已持续了半个世纪。全球贸易的大部分业务以美元结算。各国重要银行也以美元形式持有绝大部分的外汇储备，这及有利于美国廉价发放债券。即使在上世纪70年代末及80年代中期，美元的统治地位也没有因为贬值而动摇。但是现在情况不同了，欧元作为美元的替代品，令人担心的是，一旦投资者迅速改用另一种货币进行结算，全球货币系统将遭受突发性变革。
到目前为止，这还仅仅停留在一种恐惧阶段。尽管美元已经持续下跌，但是尚未出现无序暴跌的情况。本周的下跌甚至还掺杂着几次小幅反弹。美国对于未来通胀的预计可能性并未增加。政府债券的收益已经下跌：显然，投资者并不奢望从美国国债中获得过高的溢价。最终灾难降临与否将取决于促使美元贬值的原因以及决策者如何引对。