Pakistan and the Taliban
Is he dead?
Aug 7th 2009 ISLAMABAD
From Economist.com
The leader of the Taliban in Pakistan is said to have been killed
AP
HOW significant would the death of Baitullah Mehsud, the supreme leader of the Pakistani Taliban, be to the fortunes of Pakistan? According to American and Pakistani officials, Mr Mehsud was probably killed in South Waziristan tribal area on Wednesday August 5th by an American missile fired from an unmanned aircraft. It is thought that he died in the attack along with his wife and bodyguards. Pakistan’s foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, suggests that “to be 100% sure, we are going for ground verification”. However, even with the use of DNA sampling, it may be impossible to be confirm that he has been killed.
Mr Mehsud, who in 2007 declared himself to be the leader of the Pakistan Taliban, a group of around 13 factions in the northwest, was a formidable opponent and a serious threat. He was chiefly responsible for the suicide-blasts that have ripped through the country’s main cities in recent years, terrorising Pakistanis and banishing foreign investors. The Americans placed a $5m dollar bounty on him, but his position appeared relatively secure, as he was backed by a bellicose tribe in remote terrain. The CIA and Pakistan’s former military ruler, Pervez Musharraf, accused him of being behind the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, in December 2007, but he denied it. '); 
Over the years he proved to be a formidable opponent of the Pakistani army. A former gym instructor, he was one of the last tribal militant commanders with whom the armed forces parleyed and even earned the title of “good Taliban” from one general. But he also led his militants in a guerrilla war that pushed much of the army out of South Waziristan, at one time capturing more than 200 soldiers captive on a single day, holding them hostage for several months. Mr Mehsud did not send soldiers to fight coalition forces inside Afghanistan (his territory was not contiguous with the Afghan border) preferring to attack Pakistani forces. The Pakistani army accused India of providing him with support.
In 2008 he survived an attack by Pakistani forces, who had corralled him in his fief and appeared poised to capture or kill him. Instead, it appears that the army high-command struck a deal for him to escape. Over the years, by keeping ever more dubious company, he generated a lengthening list of enemies. American intelligence officers accused him of hosting al-Qaeda’s operational headquarters in his stronghold. He was also associated with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a Punjabi sectarian group that has provided al-Qaeda's recruits in Pakistan, along with Uzbeks and other Central Asian fighters. One of his lieutenants, Qari Hussain, a particularly barbarous individual, became adept at turning young Pakistanis into suicide bombers.
His death would be a cause for great celebration within the Pakistan, demonstrating that the Taliban’s leaders are vulnerable to the combined efforts of Pakistani and American forces. The army had been blockading his area with at least six brigades of infantry. These may continue to try to strangle his network, rather than carry out a big ground offensive in difficult terrain.
For the past three months the army has waged a campaign against militants in Swat Valley (farther north), but had failed to kill or capture any important leaders. For the United States, the death of Mr Mehsud would not directly influence the conflict within Afghanistan but matters given his role in spreading instability within Pakistan.
Among militants within Pakistan operating in the tribal areas, the death of Mr Mehsud would open the field for machinations. Senior militants from his umbrella group Tehreek-e-Taliban were said by locals to be gathering in his South Waziristan after his reported death. It is unclear what influence the Taliban in Afghanistan might have. Some analysts suggest that he had fallen foul of the Taliban leader in Afghanistan, Mullah Omar. Mr Mehsud became the most iconic Pakistani Taliban leader but like his predecessor, Nek Mohammed, who was killed by a missile strike, he will be replaced by another tribal militant pursuing jihad, loot or renown.
译文:
生死难定
巴基斯坦和塔利班
生死难定
2009年8月7日 伊斯兰堡
摘自《经济学人》网络版
据传巴基斯坦塔利班领导人已被击毙。
巴基斯坦塔利班组织头目贝图拉·马哈苏德(Baitullah Mehsud)的死亡将对巴基斯坦的命运起到怎样的影响？美国和巴基斯坦官员表示，8月5日（周三），一架美国无人机在南瓦济里斯坦部落地区发动导弹袭击时，可能击毙了马哈苏德。有人认为，马哈苏德连同其妻子及保镖在此次袭击中丧生。巴基斯坦外交部长沙阿·马哈茂德·库雷希暗示“有100％的把握，我们将进行实地核查”。不过，即便使用DNA取样，要证实他在此次袭击中遭击毙或许是不可能的。
马哈苏德在2007年宣布担任巴基斯坦塔利班（一个由西北部地区约13支塔利班小队聚拢而成）的领导人，是一个令人难以应付的对手，也是一个严重威胁。他对近年来发生在该国重要城市的多起自杀爆炸案件负有主要责任，并恐吓巴基斯坦平民和驱逐外国投资者。美国不惜悬赏500万美元要其项上人头，但他的处境看似十分安全，因为他在偏远地带得到了一个好战部落的支持。美国中央情报局和巴基斯坦前军方领导人穆沙拉夫指责他是2007年12月贝布托遇刺事件的幕后黑手，但遭到了他的矢口否认。
多年以来，马哈苏德被证明是一位巴基斯坦军方难以应付的对手。马哈苏德曾是一名体育教师。尽管他甚至赢得了一位将军对其授予“良好塔利班成员”的称号，但他仍是巴基斯坦军方最不愿意和谈的部落武装指挥官之一。不过，他也带领武装人员开展游击战争，迫使大部分巴军从南瓦济里斯坦撤出。他有时一天可抓获200多名士兵，并劫持他们做人质长达数月。马哈苏德喜欢袭击巴基斯坦军队，但并未派士兵攻击驻阿富汗境内（他的活动区域同阿富汗边境并未相邻）的联军部队。巴基斯坦军方指责印度向他提供支持。
2008年，他在巴基斯坦军队的进攻中幸存。巴基斯坦军队当时已在其活动范围将他围攻，大有将其捉获或击毙之势。结果却是相反，军队高级指挥官似乎同其达成了协议，令其逃脱。多年来，由于同不忠诚的伙伴为伍，他树敌颇多。美国情报官员指责马哈苏德在其所控据点建立基地组织的运营总部。除了乌兹别克和中亚其他国家的武装分子以外，他还同“拉什卡-简戈维” （巴基斯坦一个旁遮普宗派组织，向基地组织提供新成员）保持联系。卡里·侯赛因是他的一名副手，但性格特别残暴，擅长将巴基斯坦境内的年轻人培养成自杀人弹。
马哈苏德的死亡将会引发巴基斯坦国内民众举行盛大的庆祝活动，同时也彰显出塔利班领导人在美巴两国军队的联合进攻下易受伤害。美巴军队已调动至少6个旅的步兵封锁了他的活动区域。此举可能是继续试图遏制他的势力范围，而不是在难以行进的地带进行一次大规模的地面进攻。
过去三个月，美巴两国军队已在斯瓦特河谷（远北地区）发动了打击武装分子的活动，但未能抓获或击毙任何重要领导人。就美国方面而言，马哈苏德的死亡不会直接影响阿富汗境内的战争，但鉴于他的角色这将给巴基斯坦带来不稳定因素。
在巴基斯坦武装分子活动的部落地区，马哈苏德的死亡将为各种阴谋活动打开缺口。当地居民称，在媒体报道马哈苏德丧生后，受其庇护的巴塔利班分支组织TTP(Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan)高级军官聚集在他生前的活动区域南瓦济里斯坦。目前，阿富汗境内的塔利班势力可能会受到何种影响尚不清楚。有分析师指出，他已同阿富汗塔利班领导人奥马尔的关系恶化。在巴基斯坦，马哈苏德是一位最受崇拜的塔利班领袖，但诚如在导弹袭击中丧生的前任领导人纳克·穆罕默德一样，他将被另一个追求圣战的部落武装分子取代，终遭击毙或声明远扬。