民意调查报告的恶梦【纽约客】

读者: 1438    发布时间: 2008

原文: Pollster Reports Nightmare[TNY]

by Bruce McCall August 11, 2008

A CBS/Pravda/Farmer’s Almanac/“Avatar: The Last Airbender” poll released today indicates that yesterday never happened for seventy-two per cent of all respondents, but, if it had, thirty-two per cent more Independents believe now than just last May that Barack Obama and John McCain are both leading in a race now too lopsided to call. Analysts observed that the poll was taken in a light drizzle at 4 A.M. E.D.T., before the high-income segment is awake, prompting observers to analyze the results as skewing in favor of CBS.

McCain pollsters claimed that the same survey, conducted five minutes after a New Orleans Times-Picayune/Bravo/Popular Mechanics poll among women age twenty to twenty-one who are not men, found that ninety-seven per cent of respondents were too far away to be interviewed. The impact of current economic concerns on Obama’s popularity among bipolar white prison inmates with less than a kindergarten education was not measured, but the person responsible for designing the poll has been fired because prison inmates cannot vote.

Surprising many veteran pollsters as these results were tallied—given that it has yet to be conducted—was a Hartford Courant/CNN/Starbucks poll to be taken by qualified voters who, an earlier ABC/Sacramento Bee/Publishers Clearing House straw poll predicted, expect a win for either the Democrats or the Republicans come November, unless Congress acts. Recent polls show that more women than men believe otherwise, by a majority of at least three to one.

Yet, in answer to the question “Would you go before a firing squad to protect higher pollen counts?,” fewer than .03 per cent of those who identified themselves as likely McCain voters understood the question. By a plurality of four to one and counting, not counting those who did not, the Undecideds squared off in a donnybrook with the Don’t Knows, broken up by the Have No Opinions Worth Mentioning. The I Forgets stood on the sidelines.

In sharp contrast to last year’s similar polling question, conducted by the Ohio Bureau of Motor Vehicles for Indiana State University, only seventy-five per cent of respondents this year thought “with certainty” that they were being interviewed. The same seventy-five per cent also reported “moderate to severe” memory loss, a seeming rebuff to the well-financed pro-forgetfulness lobby.

Cheering the Obama camp, particularly after his Middle East visits, a Fox News/Toronto Star/Amway poll, released but not yet caught, charts a severe downturn in support for efforts not to not repeal the NAFTA treaty. But the influence on French public opinion of the marriage of President Nicolas Sarkozy and international hottie Carla Bruni will have to wait until tomorrow.

Meanwhile, the normally reliable Quinnipiac University poll was travelling and was unavailable for comment.

译文: 民意调查报告的恶梦【纽约客】

原文作者:Bruce McCall

   

      CBS(哥伦比亚广播公司)/真理报/农民年历/《降世神通:最后的气宗》的今天的民意测验都表明:对72%的民意测验的参与者而言,昨天的那一幕不会发生;即使发生了,32%以上的民意测验参与者都原意相信--不是去年五月,而是现在--贝拉克·奥巴马和约翰·麦凯恩引领的赛跑太不平衡了。分析师们注意到,这次民意测验在美国东海岸时间凌晨4点的毛毛细雨中举行,这时高收入部门还没有醒来。这使得观察者分析这些结果时会考虑到时滞有利于CBS。
     麦凯恩的民意测验专家声称,皮卡尤恩时报/Bravo电视台/《Popular》在新奥尔良对20到21岁间的女性进行的民意测验5分钟之后,又进行了一次一样的调查发现,97%的调查者因为太远而不能进行访谈调查。奥巴马在幼儿园教育系统中比白人监狱中的犯人更受欢迎,这对当前经济的影响我们不去估量,但是负责设计这次民意测验的人被炒了鱿鱼--因为犯人没有选举权。
      这些调查结果的如此吻合,让很多经验丰富的民意测验专家都很吃惊--假定这次选举已经被操纵。这和早先的ABC/Sacramento Bee网站/PCH预测的一样,参与哈特福德/CNN/星巴客民意测验的有选举权的公民期待共和党在11月或者12月的大选中获胜--除非在国会采取行动的情势下。近期的民意调查表明,期待民主党获胜的女性比男性多,两者比例至少是3:1。
      然而,在“在枪决行刑队前你会去维护更高的花粉含量吗?”这一问题的回答中,不超过0.3%很有可能会投麦凯恩票的参与者认为他们明白这个问题。没有回答这个问题的除外,4/5的调查对象在这次混战中表明不明白这个问题的意思,这些不稳定者在这个没有值得提出的观点的事件中决裂了。我忘了,我是作为一个旁观者的。
     这跟去年由俄亥俄州机动车办公署为印第安州立大学举办的一个类似的调查问题形成了强烈的对比--今年只有75%的调查者“确信”自己在接受访谈调查。同样也是75%的调查报告缓和了严重的健忘,这是对有财政支持的健忘的议员的表面上的回绝。
      Fox新闻台/多伦多明星报/安利的调查显示,在结束中东之行后,大获人心的奥巴马阵营在美国经济低迷期支持--而不是否决对北美自由贸易区条约的努力。尼古拉·萨科齐和国际名模卡拉·布吕尼对法国公众看法的影响则要等到明天才能得知。
      与此同时,一般比较可靠的昆尼比亚大学名义调查正在进行中,还不能进行评论。

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