The prices of essential agricultural products will remain at very high levels over the next decade, even if they are expected to gradually come down from the peaks that have led to food riots across Africa, the Caribbean and Asia, a new report has said.
"Whether we are talking of the price of rice, maize or wheat", staple food prices have recently broken records, but "this situation will not last", the joint study by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said.
The "spectacular" increase in prices that has been observed since 2005/06 stems mainly from poor weather in major grain producing regions, "scarce" global stocks, and the switch to biofuels, the report said.
Owing to the "ad hoc" nature of some of these factors, food prices are "expected to gradually decline", even if they will "on average remain higher in the medium term that during the past decade", it said.
Compared to the average prices recorded between 1998 and last year, the OECD and FAO are projecting "an increase of 20 percent for beef, 30 percent for raw and white sugar, and between 40 percent and 60 percent for wheat, maize and skimmed milk powder" in the next decade.
Over the same period, the increase will be "more than 60 percent for butter and oilseeds and more than 80 percent for vegetable oils", the report said.
If the level of supply is increased by "an uninterrupted rise in yields", the demand side will remain under intense pressure from "changing feeding practices, urbanization, economic development and population growth" in developing countries and thirst for biofuels, the report said.
"As a result, the cereal market is expected to remain tight until 2017," it said.
Also, "global production of ethanol will continue to progress faster and reach some 125 billion liters by 2017, twice the figures reported in 2007", it said.
The report said world rice production is set to "make a leap of around 10 percent by the end of the 2008-2017 period, mainly buoyed by more abundant outputs in South and South- East Asia countries".
"The high prices translate into winners and losers", if the prices benefit as "many farmers in developed countries as in developing countries", as "many farmers in developing countries are not linked to markets and draw little benefit, if any, from the current surge in commodity prices", it said.
"And for the poor, who are especially found in urban areas of developing countries, which are net importers of food products, the situation is set to worsen even further", the study said.
According to a recent World Bank sponsored study, the ongoing surge in food and oil prices has resulted in more than 100 million people around the world being plunged into poverty, especially those in sub-Saharan Africa, and parts of Asia and Latin America.
译文:
食品价格持续较高
(在南埃塞俄比亚紧急食品援助中心，埃塞俄比亚籍三岁儿童Bizunesh Hidana，体重不到4公斤。联合国食品计划署预计，由于近来雨水侵袭，埃塞俄比亚将有270万人需要紧急食品援助。)
据近期报道，在今后的十年，即使外界预计粮食价格会从最高点缓慢下降，重要农产品价格会持续在高位。并且粮食的持续高位导致了非洲，加勒比海以至亚洲粮食危机。世界经济合作组织（OECD）与美国食品组织与美国农业部（FAO）的联合调查显示：“无论大米，玉米还是小麦的价格，主要粮食价格均已超过历史最高，但这种情况不会持续”。
自从2006年6月开始，产粮地区受恶劣天气影响，大量粮食用来作生物燃料，这两个原因导致食品价格明显飙升。由于特定的自然环境，食品价格将会缓慢下降，即便如此，食品的价格在过去十年中期，相对处于高位。
对比1998年和上一年的食品价格数据，经济于合作发展组织与联合国农业组织预计在将来的十年牛肉的价格将上升了20％，未加工糖和白醣的价格上升30％，大米﹑玉米和脱脂奶粉上升40％—60％。同期，牛油的价格将上升60％，植物油的价格将上升80％。
如果在这个领域产品价格持续增长，那么这些产品的供给将会增加，同时由于饲养用料增加，城市化，经济的发展与发展中国家人口增加﹑生物燃料的需求，需求将会处于紧张状态
结果造成谷类食品短缺，但乙醇的全球产量会持续发展以至将在2017达到2007年的两倍。
报道称，在2008-2017最后世界大米产量可能会有个大概10％的跳跃，主要是由于南亚和东南亚国家的大量出口刺激。
这种高价会造成“赢家”和“败家”两种不同情况，如果这价格能够在发达国家与发展种国家获利，但问题是发展中国家的农民难以贴近市场并且利润很少，所以如果要说这些农民能够获利的话，那只能在现在商品价格的高升。
研究表明：对于贫困人口，尤其是发展中国家城市中的贫困人口来说，他们只能出口食品而无法自足，他们的处境会更糟。最近世界银行赞助的一项调查研究表明，现在食品和油价攀高，将导致1亿人口陷入贫困，特别是在非洲撒哈拉以南地区，以及部分亚洲和拉丁美洲地区。