原文: Web 2.0 Predictions for 2008

It's the first work day of the new year and I thought I'd take some time to offer up my predictions for what will happen on the leading edge of the Internet this year.  2007 saw Web 2.0 -- defined here as the pervasive two-way Web used for social media, mashups, user-powered Web applications, and social networking -- go far more mainstream than it had in 2006.  Web 2.0 poster children like MySpace, Facebook, and YouTube pushed their way into the top 10 Web sites globally and stayed there for virtually all of 2007.  Fresh, new Internet startups were created by the hundreds (even thousands, if you count the innumerable garage and bedroom attempts) last year and that trend isn't going to stop any time soon and the reason is fairly obvious: The Web is simply the best place to create an incredibly scalable business for the least possible investment and effort. 

However, that's not to say that it's easy to be successful online.  It's not, and the history of the Internet startup arena is littered with failures large and small, and many -- even most -- startups will inevitably succumb if they don't provide a fairly compelling offering to the users of the Web.  But fortunately for those that get the right mix of capabilities and user engagement in their online products, the upside can be nearly limitless.  This fundamental fact helped drive the whole conception of Web 2.0: A new set of models and patterns creating Web sites and applications that looked at the best practices that actually worked from the success stories of the early Web.  My point here is that the Web itself is in a state of perpetual evolution and we are all still learning a great deal all the time about what works and what doesn't and the industry tries innovative new ideas all the time.  In this way, 2008 will continue to be a fascinating year as we see what history's largest ever business laboratory and incubator will turn out for us.

We are however assuredly seeing the maturation of the Web 2.0 industry, with many of the less successful online product plays falling by the wayside from first and second Web 2.0 wave as infamously tracked by Michael Arrington's Web 2.0 Deadpool, with only a few meteoric stars rising to the top.  The good news: That doesn't mean there won't be many exciting and innovative new things happening online this year, if you only know where to look.

Here's my take on what we will see happen in 2008 in the Web 2.0 arena:

Web 2.0 Predictions for 2008 

• Open APIs finally go beyond free as successful business models emerge. Sites like Twitter are finding that their APIs get ten times the use of the site itself (Web 2.0 principle: A platform beats an application every time), but monetizing them is a challenge for all but a few major player such as Amazon.  While you can charge for each transaction across the API boundary, that isn't appropriate for many types of API uses.  Some have speculated that Twitter's API usage is making them the middle-man, like the cable companies are with broadband, but with no reasonable way to charge for API usage that typical users would accept.  Companies will continue to experiment with techniques such as injecting ads in the API data to requiring a small yearly fee to open an API for an individual user so they can use apps built for it. However, at least one major new API monetization model will emerge in 2008 that will prove to have long term legs.  My bet: The costs will increasingly be bundled into a Web 2.0 application's subscription fee or other business model, even if they use an API of the user's preference, such as Amazon's S3.  This would require billing support from API vendors to chargeback for excessive use by a customer but it would work.

• Rich Internet Application (RIA) platforms such as Adobe AIR and Microsoft's Silverlight get major traction as the development of non-trivial Web applications in Ajax remains difficult and time-consuming.  While Ajax is made from 100% open Web standards, it was never explicitly designed for the job of creating rich user experiences and it's proven tough going for many companies trying to create next generation Web experiences in Ajax.  Adobe and Microsoft have been making enormous investments in browser plug-ins and supporting development tools that will change the way the Web will look in 2008 and beyond.  These two platforms will be huge successes this year, despite the many challenges that RIA platforms face such as supporting page view-based business models, analytics, accessibility, network effects, link structure, search engine optimzation (SEO) and more.
• Google's product strategy begins to coalesce into a mostly coherent picture, though a few big pieces won't fit into the puzzle.  While appearing to overextend itself into everything from online office application, mobile phone platforms, energy, and health, some of it will begin to make sense as the missing pieces begin to emerge next year.  Look for a strategy that combines a long-term vision to integrate enormous user reach (online, mobile, SNS) as well as function (software apps and utility capabilities such as search and location) and business (advertising)  into an interlocking platform play of a scope and breadth that will, pound for pound, out maneuver the vast majority of their competition.  Disclaimer: I am a Google shareholder.
• The Web 2.0 industry consolidates as it begins to mature.  This has been covered extensively on Mashable and John Battelle's 2008 prediction list so I don't need to repeat their outlooks, which I generally agree with.  Most startups, as in any generation, will fall by the wayside and a few major success stories will emerge.  Mergers and acquisitions will ensue. The next generation will begin, and so on.  The reality is that most new Web apps are still mostly Web 1.0.  We still have a long way to go before Web 2.0 design patterns are standard fare but Web 3.0 (whatever that turns out to be) will come upon us while that's still happening.  2008 will see a lot of old Web 2.0 faces be acquired or leave the scene entirely.
• End-user mashups will be a reality but adoption will be slow for most of the year as users take time coming to grips with the possibilities and mindset.  A little while back I wrote a detailed list of reasons why end-user mashups wouldn't happen in a big way in 2007.  Since then, it looks like only a couple of those reasons will be addressed in 2008.  Despite this, we'll see mashup platforms being rolled out by IT departments and high-functioning businesses as a significantly better and cheaper way to solve many problems by remixing the immense pool of content and functionality on the Web and in our organizations.  The average user will need time for this potential to be appreciated and understood but we'll see the first significant creation of end-user assembled Web applications in 2008.
• The Web widget format wars will ensue as Google Gadgets/OpenSocial takes on just about everyone else.  No one will win yet.  2007 was the year of the Do-It-Yourself era when it comes to users creating their own experiences out of the Web, often by just pulling off the parts of a Web site they liked and sharing it with others in their blogs and user profiles.  To embrace this demand, almost all major Web sites currently offer their sites in modular chunks known as widgets, or if you're Google or Microsoft, gadgets that their users can distribute.  However, like many aspects of Web 2.0, Web widgets are an emergent phenomenon with no large company or standards organization having created it up front with lots of engineering and funding.  As a result, there are many different ways to design and offer a Web widget with Google taking the clear lead at the moment with well over 30,000 different Gadgets currently being offered.  Throw in SNS widget/app platforms such as Facebook applications and OpenSocial and you have a recipe for fragmentation and an increasing to do list for Web sites which want to participate in what is a growing and often captive ecosystem of users controlled by each format's backer.  No consensus will be reached by the Web industry in 2008 but many solutions will be proposed, such as the W3C's Widget spec.
• Page view "inventories" for online advertising continues to fall short of demand, even if an economic downturn takes place.  The well regarded McKinsey & Company predicted last year that advertising will actually have fairly significant growth challenges for the next five years from high demand and lack of maturity in the management of online advertising through traditional outlets.  My personal take: I've seen enough pent-up demand that I don't think even an economic downtown will noticeable affect the fortunes of online adveritising for the foreseeable future.
• Web-based Software as a service (SaaS), aka Office 2.0, continues to encounter serious challenges but grows at a record pace anyway.  Offline access to applications and data remains one of the biggest challenges to true Web-based software, but Google Gears and offerings from firms like Etelos are offering more and more options to make Web apps work offline (albeit with reductions in functionality).  Other challenges include the cumulative drag of paying a periodic subscription fee for access to software as well security and overall capability.  Despite this, positive aspects of SaaS will continue to prevail and 2008 is looking to be the biggest SaaS year yet.
• A wave of new killer mobile Web applications (and their startups) appear, spurred by the iPhone Software Development Kit (SDK) and ever more untethered workers.  Twitter was likely just the first in an era of fundamentally network-oriented applications with communications and collaboration at their design core.  The release of the iPhone last year proved that Web apps could be nearly as functional and pleasing as desktop apps.  The coming iPhone SDK, which will let anyone build iPhone software legally, will help usher in a new era of useful new consumer and business mobile applications, many which will sport Web 2.0 capabilities or even be fundamentally Web 2.0 based, such as route capturing software and automatic traffic tracking, particularly as more mobile devices add GPS capability in 2008.
• The first Android-powered phones will fail to impress and a decent, though not spectacular, iPhone upgrade keeps Apple ahead of the industry.  Google's widely covered Android platform will experience the usual beta/1.0 issues, particularly since one company doesn't have control over the entire product development process of Android phones.  Expect a somewhat rocky second half of '08 for Android while Apple maintains its market lead with what is still the most Web-friendly communications device yet created by releasing a solid upgrade of the iPhone this year, perhaps even twice.  Mobile Web 2.0 apps will continue to get very popular in 2008.
• Social media begins to grow up, leading to the first significant onset of Web 2.0 versions of talent agents, production companies, and other supply/demand enablers.  Blogs and other forms of social media such as backyard produced YouTube videos let anyone reach out to the entire audience of the Web at the cost of nothing more than a little bit of their time.  Despite the hugely democratizing effect this is having in the media world, the new online stars of the Web 2.0 still need professional help to maximize their opportunities and potential.  While this has been going on for a while with media companies cultivating paid bloggers and other forms of leveraging social media, expect that the social media phenomenon will being to create its own cottage industry of agents that can help the talented reach the Web mot effectively, for a cut of the action of course.  On the other side, production companies will form to give rising stars the resources they need to succeed.  We'll see a spate of new companies forming around this growing need in 2008, as traditional companies in this space continue to struggle with the medium.
• Leading social networking sites MySpace and Facebook continue to maintain their traffic but struggle to ignite significant revenue growth. Facebook's widely covered struggles late last year with the business model of its Beacon product is somewhat indicative of the entire Web 2.0 era: Incredible levels of participation with serious challenges to leveraging said participation due to privacy, governance, ownership, copyright, and other issues.  Make no mistake, however, these issues will be solved given the massive global stake in a successful outcome but it'll take at least through 2008 to do it.
• The Web moves into the living room as sites like Hulu and others make it practical and rewarding to participate on the Web using a large screen for entertainment.  Digital convergence in the main room of our homes has been in progress for a half-decade or more.  I'm a little reluctant to call it but I have definitely noticed a sharp uptick in the people I know starting to use the Web on the big screen.  New Web apps are emerging to make it popular and mainstream, and in 2008, will see the first big major uptake of Web usage -- with rich media apps in particular -- in our living rooms.
• The first generation of pure Web 2.0 auteurs emerge, creating social media and user-centric online experiences that are highly imaginative and popular, but difficult to access for the non-digitally literate.  The first generation of users whose most formative years were primarily spent in the Web 2.0 era are beginning to reach the age where they will become significant creative forces in their own right.  As the Web has become easy enough for semi-technical people to create nearly any experience they wish, expect that a generation of youth who consider the Web as natural a medium as the air they breath will begin to generate not just content but the next aspects of the Web itself.  While we continue to hold up movie directors, authors, TV production firms, and commercial Internet companies as the creators of most of the common large-scale group experiences we have, expect that Web 2.0 will impose its egalitarian influences here as well.  I predict we'll see an initial handful of Web 2.0 auteurs emerge that will offer large-scale Web-based "experiences" that will not only redefine the notion of the Web site itself but will be widely used as well.   I also expect that many of them will come from developing nations or from other unexpected locations and less from the United States and Europe.
• Update: Ownership of data contributed to Web 2.0 sites becomes a growing public relations issue, though the average user won't care much this year.  I added this because the growing brouhaha about Robert Scoble's blocked Facebook account reminded me that we'll continue see many sites attempt to control the data they receive from users in a very Web 1.0 way.  This is somewhat surprising given it's 2008 and we've learned these lessons in the industry the hard way already.  However, it's entirely correct that Web sites should maintain control over their valuable and hard to recreate data.  A good example is how YouTube jealously protects its videos and doesn't let you download them, only view them on the site or through the badge.  Yet the often contrarian nature of the Web sometimes requires the opposite of an action to get the desired effect.  In this case, it turns out that the more control you give up, the more value you tend to get back.  Sites that lock users in, prevent them from having the experiences they want, and exert excessive and unfair control, will lose in the end.  See DataPortability.org and the GraphSync project, which aims to enable the open movement of a user's social graph, as examples of where all this is headed. 

Update: TechCrunch covers JP Morgan's bullish predictions for the Web business in 2008.

Where do you think the Web will go in 2008? Please leave your take in comments below.

译文: web 2.0 2008预测

然而，这不是说网络事业就非常容易成功。网络事业的历史中充满了大大小小的失败，许多（甚至是大部分）网络事业如果不能高度吸引网络用户的眼球的话，将不可避免地遭受灭顶之灾。不过如果他们能将网上产品的性能与用户的参与度适当地融合在一起，那么他们向上发展的空间则是无止境的。这个基本事实有助于推动web2.0的整体概念：借鉴早期web的成功实例所形成的一整套创建网站及应用程序的模型与模式。我的观点就是网络本身就处于一个不断发展的状态，一直以来，我们都在对它进行大量的学习，企业也在努力创新。因此，这个历史上最大的商业实验室和培养基地会为我们展示出什么呢？2008年将仍是精彩不断的一年。

然而我们也确实看到web2.0在成熟，在第一、二波Web2.0热浪中，继Michael Arrington的web2.0deadpool之后，许多原本就不太成功的网络商品半途而废，少数几个表现出色的也只是昙花一现。值得欣慰的是，那些并不意味着今年网络上就不会出现许多令人振奋，具有创意的新事物发生，只要你具有方向感。

以下就是我对于2008年Web2.0竞技场的态势预测。

2008年Web2.0预测

• 随着成功商业模式的出现，开放式AIP最终将不再免费。Twitter等网站发现他们的API使用次数是网站本身的10倍（web2.0 准则：平台每每击退应用程序。），然而将API利润化却是所有网站面临的一个挑战（Amazon这类少数大型交易者除外） 虽然你可以对每个通过API处理的交易进行收费，但这并不适用于API的其他用途。 已经有人推测Twritter的API使用令某些人成为中间商，就像光纤光缆公司和宽带一样，但能让用户接受的合理API收费方式却还没有。公司将会继续技术上的实验，例如在API数据中嵌入广告以获取小笔年收费，或对某个用户开放一个API以便他能够使用基于该API上的应用程序。2008年会出现至少一种主要的新式API利润化模式。我敢打赌：即使只是使用用户喜好的一个API，如Amazon’s S3，这项成本都将会逐渐绑定到web2.0应用程序订阅费用中，或其他的商业模式。为了收取用户对API额外使用的费用，这将要求API供应商的财力支持。

• 由于Ajax框架上重要web应用程序的开发仍比较难且耗时，Adobe AIR和Microsft的Silverlight等RIA(富互联网应用程序)获得主要动力。 虽然Ajax来源于100%开放式网络标准，却无法为创建丰富的用户体验而提供明确的设计；许多公司试图在Ajax上构建下一代网络体验，而这被证明是非常棘手的。Adobe和Microsoft一直在浏览器插件和开发支持工具上进行了大量的投资，这将改变2008年及其后的网络表现方式。尽管RIA面临着许多挑战，例如对基于页面浏览的商业模式的支持、解析、可访问性、网络效果、链接结构、搜索引擎优化等等，这两种平台在今年将获得巨大成功。
• Google的产品策略是将产品融合成一个脉络清晰的整体，但有几个大型产品并不包含在内。Google的产品遍布各个领域，网络办公系统、移动电话平台、能源、健康等等，某些产品将逐渐淡化，而在下一年呈现。整合对象不仅是功能性（软件应用系统和实用程序性能，如检索和定位）和商业性（广告业）的，还有大量的用户链接访问（在线，移动，SNS），把它们结合成一个覆盖面广的平台，这将也会成为Google的主要竞争力，而这一切需要长远的眼光。因此，必须寻找合适的策略来完成。
• Web 2.0产业越成熟就越巩固。这一点在Mashable和John Battelle2000的预言中已有充分说明，对此我基本赞同，在此也就不再重复了。任何时期大多数的事业都会半途而废，而留下几个主要成功的故事。继而出现合并与收购。新时期也同样如此。事实是大部分新web应用系统仍是Web 1.0。距离Web 2.0设计模式标准化仍有很长一段路，而在此期间，Web 3.0将会出现在我们面前。2008年中，大量旧式Web 2.0表现形式要么已成习惯，要么彻底离开这个舞台。
• 最终用户mashups将成为现实，但由于用户需要时间去掌握它，因此其被应用的过程比较慢。早先我列举了若干条原因说明为什么最终用户mashups在2007无法扩大。因此，其中几条也适用于2008年。尽管如此，由于能够重新融合网络和公司组织内的海量信息和功能，它能更好更经济地解决许多问题，因此mashup平台仍将被IT部门和高功能商业所推出。一般用户需要费点时间去体会、去理解其中的好处。2008年将会产生第一个重大的最终用户集成web应用系统。 
• 由于Google Gadgets/OpenSocial 一向得人心，将会出现网络widget格式大战。2007年是DIY年，用户自己从网络上获取体验，通常是在喜爱的网站上获取某部分，并放在blog或用户配置文件中加以共享。为满足这一需求，几乎所有重要网站目前都提供widget，Google和微软则提供的是gadget。然而，就如同web 2.0其它方面，网络widegts是自然产生的现象，无需大型公司或标准化组织利用大量系统工程或基金加以建立。因此，设计提供网络widget的方法是多样的，目前Google处于领先地位，已经提供了30，000多种不同的gadget。网站都希望参与到这个在各种格式控制下不断发展的“用户生态系统””；连接SNS widget应用平台，如Facebook应用或OpenSocial，你会找到多个widegts，以及不断增长的网站制作任务清单。2008年中Web产业对此是无法达成一致，但会有许多解决方案提出，例如W3C的Widget spec。
• 网络广告的页面浏览“清单”继续供不应求，即使出现经济低迷。颇受尊敬的McKinsey & Company 去年预言未来数年中由于高需求以及用传统方法管理网络广告的不完善，广告业的发展面临挑战。我个人观点：太多需求被抑制，不久的将来，即使是经济闹市也不会明显影响到网络广告业的命运。
• 网络软件服务Saas，aka Office 2.0 继续遭遇严重挑战，但其仍高速发展。应用程序及数据的离线访问仍是网络软件最大的一个问题，不过Google Gears和Etelos等公司提供了越来越多的方法来实现网络应用系统离线工作（即使功能有所减少）。其它问题还有定期订阅的软件访问费用，安全性、整体性能。尽管如此，Saas的优势仍将占据上风，而且2008年将是SaaS风光年。
• 一波新杀手级移动web应用的浪潮出现，由iPhone软件开发包SDK和更多人员所推动。在以交流与协作为核心的面向网络应用系统的时代里，Twitte很可能是第一人。去年iPhone的发布证明了网络应用系统几乎能与桌面系统一样功能强大、令人满意。即将到来的iPhone SDK将让每个人合法地构建iPhone软件，也有助于宣告一个新时代；在这个时代中有新的消费者和新的商业移动应用，其中许多都将显示出web 2.0的功能或根据就是基于web2.0之上的，例如路线获取软件和交通自动追踪等，尤其是2008年中更多的移动设施添加了GPS功能。
• 第一代Android电话没能引人瞩目，也不大方，因此面临失败，而iphone的升级虽不轰动，却也使得Apple保持在业内的领先地位。Google's覆盖广泛的Android平台将经常遇到beta版本的发布，这是因为没有一家公司掌控了Android电话的整个产品开发过程。Apple这一年发布了一两次iphone的有力升级，而这成就了最佳的网络友好设备，凭此Apple保持着它的市场领先地位，而对于Android，2008年的下半年可能多少显得有些困难。08年中移动web2.0应用系统将继续流行。
• 大众传媒开始发展，引领着面向人才代理、演出公司和其他供求者的web2.0的第一次重大出击。Blog和大众传媒的其他形式（例如YouTube视频产生的backyard）能够让每个人接触到网络的整个群众，其代价几乎为零，只除了费点时间而已。尽管媒体界中它极大地拥有民主化效应，但web2.0的新星仍需借助专业帮助来扩大他们的机遇和潜力。一段时期以来，媒体公司都在致力于有偿写blog者和其他社会媒介形式，我们期望大众传媒现象能够创建自己的经纪人产业空间，作为一种捷径来帮助那些有才华的人有效地接触网络。另一方面，组建演出公司来为这些新星提供成功所需要的资源。基于这股不断增长的需求，08年里将有一批新公司成立，而此领域中的传统公司将继续与这种媒介抗衡。
• 领先社会互联网站MySpace和Facebook继续一边维持自己的商业，一边努力大幅度增长收入。去年末Facebook的Beacon产品商业模式的全方位开展多少象征着了整个web 2.0时代：诸如隐私权、支配权、所有权、版权等问题挑战着网络参与程度。然而，利用巨大的全球力量必能圆满解决这些问题，所需时间至少一年。
• Hulu等网站已能让人们在卧室中利用大屏幕上网娱乐。客厅全面数字化已经历了5年以上。我不是太愿意说明这一点，但我已经明显注意到有些时尚的朋友开始通过大屏幕上网。新型网络应用的出现使其大众化，08年中，在丰富的多媒体应用系统支持下，将产生卧室网络化的新理念。
• 第一代纯web2.0导演产生，他们创造了大众传媒和以用户为中心的网络体验，这些非常富有想象力、时尚化，但对于不上网的人们来说却是难以接触。第一代web2.0用户正开始发挥自身的创造力。对于稍懂技术的人来说，网络已非常简单，足以创造出任何想要的体验；年轻一代认为网络如同空气一样自然，希望他们不仅能够从网络的内容上加以创新，也能引起新一代网络的产生。对于多数大型群众体验的创造者，我们例举的仍是电影导演、作者、电视制作公司、商业互联网公司；期待web 2.0 也能占据一席之地。我预测将产生第一批提供大型网络体验的web2.0导演，这不仅再次定义了网站本身的概念，而且也将得到广泛应用。我希望这批导演不仅来自于美国和欧洲，更有来自于发展中国家或其他地方。
• 更新：分布在web2.0站点上的数据的所有权日益成为一个公共关系热点，虽然今年里一般用户并不在乎这点。Rober Scoble被封的Facebook帐户持续引起争议，这提醒了我许多网站仍以web 1.0的方式来控制来自于用户的数据；这也是我增加这一预测的原因。这样的情况放在08年里多少令人觉得吃惊，我们已经吃够苦头了。然而，网站应该保有重要数据的控制权，这是完全正确的；而且重建数据也是非常困难的。YouTube小心翼翼地保护它的视频资料，不能下载，只能在线或通过认证观看，这就是个很好的例子么。然而网络天生就与众不同，有时需要采取反面措施才能达到预期效果。就好比你的控制权放弃得越多，你的回报越具有价值。锁定用户往往有碍网站获取他们想要的体验，而且施加过多不公平的控制权最终将使其失败。DataPortability.org和GraphSync 工程作为领头人，致力于实现用户社会关系图的开放运动。

更新：TechCrunch网站里贴有JP Morgan对于2008年web商业的乐观预测

你认为2008年Web将如何发展？请留下你的理解。