《长尾理论》：Web2.0的原动力

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原文: The Long Tail: A Motive Force for Web 2.0, Makes Its Official Debut

Chris Anderson, Editor-in-Chief of Wired Magazine, has been discussing a concept he calls The Long Tail for quite some time now.  Many of you have no doubt been reading his excellent blog on the subject, and now finally his long-awaited book about this key Web 2.0 business model has been published.  The actual launch day was just over a week ago (some great coverage of this by Chris), yet The Long Tail has long since emerged into the collective consciousness of business and technology thought leaders everywhere.  It was even prominently cited in Tim O'Reilly's seminal essay on What Is Web 2.0 (top of page two), where he gives the concept a lot of credit for creating some of the Web's major successes:

"Overture and Google's success came from an understanding of what Chris Anderson refers to as "the long tail," the collective power of the small sites that make up the bulk of the web's content." - Tim O'Reilly
Chris Anderson's The Long Tail

The Long Tail by Chris AndersonFor those who haven't been tracking it, The Long Tail essentially describes the mass servicing of micromarkets, which is primarily made possible, even cost effective, by the delivery system of the Web itself.  This is what the subtitle of the book puts another way as Why The Future of Business is Selling Less of More.  And it's not some obscure buzzword, I've found The Long Tail to be an indispensable short hand in describing certain concepts and trends we see emerging in business and the Web these days.  For example, I've described Amazon's innovative Mechanical Turk as a yet another one of their brilliant "long tail" plays.  So too how The Long Tail of enterprise software demand is finally being tapped using Web 2.0 technologies to cost effectively serve previously underserved portions of the enterprise which couldn't previously justify the the expense, most notably in articles on ZDNet and here.

And I'm far from being the only one.  The term is a popular in the blogosphere in general and is frequently a hot topic of discussion. And while sometimes the term does feel overused or misapplied - and still makes all-too-frequent appearance in marketing slides - it has serious legs in being the only catchy and effective descriptor of an otherwise seemingly obscure statistical anomaly.  Thus, I say ignore The Long Tail at your peril; fortunes will continues to be won and lost over how well it's understood and exploited.  Here's a big congratulations to Chris for so diligently and effectively bringing all of us this epiphany.

Other great coverage of The Long Tail recently:

- Don't Get Confused By The Long Tail - Matthew Hurst
- Wagging The Tail - Jon Howard
- The Wrong Tail: A Checklist for Long Tail Implementations - Guy Kawasaki
- The Long Tail of Revenue 2.0 - Scott Karp
- The Economist does The Long Tail - Chris Anderson
- Update: John Hagel does some pentrating analysis of the concepts, post-book release
- Update: Lee Gomes of the Wall Street Journal has his take on The Long Tail and it's extremely interesting.  My take, given a content set with equal discoverability, The Long Tail is there.

Chris also made a terrific appearance on National Public Radio earlier this week and the audiocast is now available online.  It  offers an extremely informative and entertraining overview of the concept, including the homage Budweiser paid to Chris' concept with the creation of their Long Tail Libations brand.  If this doesn't indicate that The Long Tail is entering mainstream consciousness, nothing will.  So study The Long Tail, add it to your arsenal of New Internet business models (along with Gaining Control over Hard to Recreate Data Sources, Encouraging Unintended Uses, Applications as Platforms, and Customer Self-Service), and use them to create some terrific next generation Web businesses.

Can you think of any interesting new real-world examples of The Long Tail?

译文: 《长尾理论》：Web2.0的原动力

  Chris Anderson，《连线》杂志的总编辑，最近一直在讨论一个理念，他称之为《长尾理论》。 大多数人对于他精彩的博客上关于该主题的内容表示赞许，而现在他这本关于主要Web2.0商务模式的、万众瞩目的著作终于发布了。正式发布日期大概是一周前（Chris做过一些精彩报导），在此之前，长尾理论已经渗透到商业和技术思想领袖们集体意识的方方面面了。它也被引用到Tim O'Reilly的开创性论文什么是Web2.0（第二页第一篇），他认为获得Web大成功，长尾理论是一个值得贯彻的理念。

 “Overture和Google的成功就在于他们从Chris Anderson的“长尾理论”中吸收到了一些精髓，小型网站力量的聚合构成整个网络的大部分内容。”- Tim O'Reilly

                                      Chris Anderson's The Long Tail
The Long Tail by Chris Anderson

  对于那些对《长尾理论》还不是很了解的人来说，《长尾理论》本质上是说有效的通过 Web 来提供对微观市场的宏观服务，这也是本书的副标题--打破80/20法则的新经济学（Why The Future of Business is Selling Less of More）。这并不是什么虚无缥缈的词，我发现长尾理论是当今在商务和web中出现的一些理念和趋势的最佳简述。例如，我曾说过Amazon的机器土耳其人（Mechanical Turk）是《长尾理论》的另一个鲜明代表。在ZDNet和这里，我们能看到一些描述将《长尾理论》运用到企业软件需求上的文章。

 

  我并不是唯一一个熟悉这一理论的人。该理论在blogosphere很流行，也是讨论的热门话题。有时候发觉这个词被过多使用甚至是误用-而且在用于营销的幻灯片中出现的也实在是太频繁了-谁让有些词语实在是太古怪，只有《长尾理论》才是最佳表述词呢。那么频繁的使用《长尾理论》，但是切记，自己承担风险，是你如何理解和使用《长尾理论》决定你成功与否。最后祝贺Chris带来那么棒的理念。

最近其他关于《长尾理论》的精彩报导

- 《不要被长尾理论搞混》（Don't Get Confused By The Long Tail） - Matthew Hurst
- 《摆动尾巴》（Wagging The Tail） - Jon Howard
- 《错误he Wrong Tail: A Checklist for Long Tail Implementations - Guy Kawasaki
- Revenue 2.0的《长尾理论》（The Long Tail of Revenue 2.0） - Scott Karp
- 《经济学家运用长尾理论》（The Economist does The Long Tail） - Chris Anderson

-最新报导：John Hagel对该理念作了深入的分析，文章发表在邮报上

-最新报导：华尔街日报(Wall Street Journal)的Lee Gomes对《长尾理论》有着他自己的看法，而且还满有趣的哦。我认为两者都是发现，只不过角度不同而已。

  Chris在全国公共广播电台（National Public Radio）上露了个脸，该节目也已经可以在线收看了。这次谈话讲到了许多该理念的深入、全面的信息，包括Budweiser为他们长尾理论祭酒品牌的创立支付给Chris一笔费用。如果这都不算《长尾理论》已经步入主流，那还有什么呢？所以学学《长尾理论》吧，将其运用到你新的因特网商务模式中去吧（连同获取对难以重建的数据源的控制《获取对难以重建的数据源的控制》（Gaining Control over Hard to Recreate Data Sources），鼓励使用《长尾理论》（Encouraging Unintended Uses），《应用程序作为平台》（Applications as Platforms）和《客户自助式服务》（Customer Self-Service），并且运用他们创建下一代Web公司。


  你还能想到什么关于《长尾理论》在现实中的有趣例子吗？
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