原文: Obama Should Look Into Putin's Record, Not His Eyes

The U.S. has the chance for a fresh start on Russia relations.

NOVEMBER 20, 2008
By GARRY KASPAROV

Even as Barack Obama faces front-page issues like Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, he will still have to find the time and courage to deal with a certain nuclear-armed autocracy that controls much of the world's oil and gas.

AP

How should Mr. Obama deal with Russia's official president, Dmitry Medvedev, and Russia's real leader, Vladimir Putin? The choice is straightforward: Mr. Obama can treat them like fellow democratic leaders or like the would-be dictators that they are. His decision will tell the world a great deal about how seriously he takes his promises of change.

The Kremlin is very eager to be accepted as an equal. It apparently hopes that Mr. Obama will send the signal that democracy in Russia doesn't matter, that the Kremlin's crushing of the opposition and free speech is irrelevant, and that annexing pieces of neighboring Georgia is a local issue and not an international one.

Last week Mr. Medvedev was in France to meet with the leaders of Europe. French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is also the current European Union president, tripped over his tongue to ingratiate himself and to present himself as a great peacemaker.

Mr. Sarkozy proudly announced that Russia had "mostly completed" its obligations to resolve the conflict with Georgia. But there is no way to "mostly" accept a dictatorship.

Russia's ruling elite has close allies among the European nations that Mr. Obama is expected to woo. I am far less concerned by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's clownish remarks about Mr. Obama's "suntan" than about the way he so eagerly rushes to defend the commercial and political interests of Mr. Putin's clan.

Leaders like Messrs. Berlusconi and Sarkozy have no allegiance to the nation of Russia. Rather, they are defending Mr. Putin as a means to protect their personal and business relationships. Will Mr. Obama's desire to be the toast of Europe come at the expense of democracy in Russia? Mr. Obama must listen very carefully when European voices defend the Putin regime. Nearly always there is the hiss of gas or the bubbling of oil in the background.

Last weekend Mr. Medvedev was in Washington to continue his new charm offensive. But Mr. Obama must remember that he was selected by over 66 million votes while Mr. Medvedev needed only one -- that of his predecessor, Mr. Putin.

There is little doubt the most recent elections in Russia had even less value than those in Venezuela and Iran. Russia's own "supreme leader" cannot be treated as a true democratic representative if the new U.S. administration wishes to maintain any credibility on matters of human rights and freedom abroad. For a glimpse into Russia's "democracy," just look at its idea of a bailout. While Washington is worried about Main Street, in Russia the government wants to rescue the oligarchs -- at the expense of the Russian taxpayer.

In Mr. Medvedev's Nov. 5 speech in Moscow, he assured the mafia running the country that everything is business-as-usual despite the global financial crisis. He also talked about extending the presidential and parliamentary terms of office, even though the next Russian parliamentary elections aren't until 2011.

The speech sent two signals. First, that the Constitution, praised by Mr. Medvedev as the "cornerstone of law," can be twisted. This helps pave the way for Mr. Putin's return to his old Kremlin office, perhaps even before all the furniture has been moved out. Equally important, it says that Messrs. Medvedev and Putin aren't going anywhere until they are forced to leave.

In a Nov. 7 meeting of senior officials, Mr. Medvedev instructed the interior minister to crush any demonstrators "exploiting the crisis" as extremists and criminals. If the EU has "mostly" ignored bloodshed in Georgia, would they accept it in Russia as well?

The collapsing Russian economy precipitated Mr. Medvedev's new batch of threats. The vast majority of Russians, who haven't shared the trough with Mr. Putin's elites over the past decade, are realizing that they never will. When Mr. Medvedev took office he said that Russia would become a global financial center and that the ruble would become a reserve currency of choice. But with oil nearing $50 a barrel, the charade of a strong and stable Russia is over. The ruble is becoming a reserve currency -- in Russia. With so many aspects of life in Russia deteriorating simultaneously, the regime has to squeeze harder to keep control.

Each day decreases the likelihood of a quiet transition of power later on. As John F. Kennedy said, "Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable." Such talk about the fall of the Putin regime is not just wishful thinking. Remember all the experts who failed to anticipate the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Do not believe that the damage from a violent fall would be limited to within Russia's borders. Gazprom and its ilk have many allies in the Western companies and administrations that currently serve as the Kremlin's enablers. There is also the issue of Russia's vast nuclear arsenal and large, though impoverished, military.

Mr. Medvedev's posturing about the supposed threat of NATO expansion -- and about deploying missiles near the Polish border in response to the U.S. missile shield -- are part of his plan to get Western leaders to leave him alone so that he can continue his looting. Mr. Obama must quickly make clear that he will not tolerate this. He cannot repeat his predecessor's mistake and look into Mr. Putin's eyes instead of looking at his record.

Mr. Obama's character is already being tested. He will fail unless he labels the Putin dictatorship correctly from the start. If he does, Mr. Obama might even be able to help bring hope and change to an entirely new constituency: 142 million Russians.

译文: 奥巴马，请您不要看着普京的眼睛

奥巴马，请您不要看着普京的眼睛，看他的表现

2008年11月20日
作者：加里-卡斯帕罗夫
摘自《华尔街日报评论》网

在中俄关系上，美国有机会营造一个新开端

即便当前奥巴马面临重大难题，如伊拉克，伊朗和阿富汗等问题，他仍将不得不挤出时间，拿出勇气来同某个以核武器武装的专制国家，控制世界大部分石油和天然气的独裁政权打交道。

奥巴马应该如何处理同俄罗斯的正式总统梅德韦杰夫，俄罗斯的真正领导人普京的关系呢？选择很简单：奥巴马将他们看做是民主的领导人或看作是想要成为独裁的领导人。奥巴马的决定将会告诉世界他对关于变革的诺言又是如何的慎重。

克里姆林宫非常渴望被平等对待。显然，它也希望奥巴马将发出信号：俄罗斯的民主对此无足轻重，克里姆林宫对反对派的镇压和对言论自由的堵塞对此毫不相干，吞邻国格鲁吉亚的领土只是地方事务，而非国际焦点。

上周，梅德韦杰夫在法国会晤了欧洲领导人。而欧盟现任主席法国总统萨科齐却在自吹自擂，把自己看做是一位伟大的和平缔造者。

萨尔科齐引以为豪地宣布，俄罗斯在解决同格鲁吉亚的冲突上已“基本上”完成应尽的义务，但独裁统治“基本上”是得不到认同的。

俄罗斯执政精英在欧洲有着亲密的盟国，预计奥巴马也将会积极拉拢欧洲各国。对意大利总理贝卢斯科尼关于奥巴马“晒黑皮肤”的滑稽言论，我并不大关注，而我所关注的则是贝卢斯科尼急切捍卫普京集团商业和政治利益的做法。

诸如贝卢斯科尼和萨科齐一类的领导人并没有忠诚于俄罗斯。相反，对普京总理辩护只是他们做作为保护双方私人和企业关系的一种手段。奥巴马拉拢欧洲的愿望会不会以牺牲俄罗斯的民主为代价？在欧洲国家对捍卫普京政权积极辩护时，奥巴马必须要非常仔细倾听。这些辩护言辞几乎总是在天然气方面的不满或在石油方面的抱怨。

上周周末，梅德韦杰夫在华盛顿继续发起他新一轮的魅力攻势。但是，奥巴马必须记住他本人的当选是依靠6600多万选民的支持，而梅德韦杰夫的执政则需要获得前任总统，现任总理普京的认同。

几乎无疑，同委内瑞拉和伊朗相比，俄罗斯最近举行的选举甚至是毫无价值。如果美国新政府想要在国外人权和自由问题上保持信用的话，俄罗斯“最高领导人”不能被视为一个真正民主的代表。想要一睹俄罗斯的“民主”，只看这个国家的救助方案就心知肚明了。在美国政府正为美国贫苦大众忧心忡忡时，俄罗斯政府却企图以牺牲俄罗斯纳税人的代价来救助少数人垄断的组织。

11月5日，梅德韦杰夫在莫斯科发表了讲话。尽管全球金融危机来袭，梅德韦杰夫还是向操纵俄罗斯的黑手党保证一切仍将照常。与此同时，他还谈到要延长总统和议会的任期，即便俄罗斯下届议会选举直到2011年才开始举行。

梅德韦杰夫的讲话向人们发出了两个信号。首先，宪法可被曲解。尽管，梅德韦杰夫曾称赞俄罗斯宪法是“法律的基石”。而这点使得普京总理的家具还未全部被搬出去克里姆林宫之前，就已经为普京重返旧地铺平了道路。同样重要的是，据说梅德韦杰夫总统和普京总理将会牢牢把持政权，直到被迫退位。

11月7日，在一场高官会议上，梅德韦杰夫总统指示内政部长对任何“借助经济危机”进行示威的人员列为极端分子和罪犯，并加以镇压。如果欧盟“基本上”忽略了发生在格鲁吉亚的流血事件，那么他们是不是对发生在俄罗斯的流血事件也同样会袖手旁观呢？

俄罗斯经济的崩溃正促使梅德韦杰夫总统面临新一轮的威胁。在俄罗斯处于萧条阶段的过去十年，大多数民众未能同普京的精英集团共患难。现在，他们也正逐渐认识到，他们也将永远不能。梅德韦杰夫在就任时表示，俄罗斯将成为一个全球金融中心，卢布将成为储备货币的一种选择。但是，随着石油跌至每桶50美元的价格，关于俄罗斯强大和稳定的谎言已是不攻自破。卢布正在成为储备货币，但仅局限在俄罗斯。与此同时，俄罗斯民众生活的方方面面正在日益恶化，统治集团也不得不加紧步伐来确保自己的控制地位。

俄罗斯政权的顺利过渡正在日渐受到削弱。正如约翰-肯尼迪所言：“那些使和平改革成为不可能的人，必会使暴力革命成为可能。”这种关于普京政权崩溃的论调并不只是一厢情愿的想法。记住所有的这些专家并未曾预测到苏联的解体。

请不要认为武力颠覆俄罗斯政权所造成的破坏仅限于在俄罗斯境内。在西方国家的企业和行政部门都有许多盟友的俄罗斯天然气工业公司以及同行企业当前就在克里姆林宫担任要职。此外，还有一个问题，俄罗斯拥有大规模的核武器库和庞大的军事力量（尽管国家贫困）。

针对美国部署在东欧的导弹防御系统，梅德韦杰夫做出了表态。他视北约扩张为假定的威胁，在靠近波兰边境地区部署了导弹。此举的目的在于确保西方国家领导人对其莫惹是非，令其继续劫掠。奥巴马应该迅速作出明确回应，决不会容忍俄罗斯如此作为。奥巴马不能重蹈前任之覆辙，不能看普京的眼睛行事，而要看普京的往日表现做出抉择。

奥巴马的个性已在受到考验。除非奥巴马从一开始就恰如其分地给普京贴上专政的标签，否则他将败得一塌糊涂。如果奥巴马能够这样做，他甚至可能会给一批全新的支持者——1.42亿俄罗斯民众——带来希望和变革。