停止股市中的博弈

读者: 864    发布时间: 02-01

原文: Stop the gamblers on stock market

The FTSE falls 5 percent. The pound collapses against the dollar in the biggest one-day fall since floating exchange rates began in 1971; oil prices are in free fall; Asian markets in near panic. What happened at weekend was dumbfounding.

Sure, there are problems in the real economy, but movements in the markets have been so violent that they are reinforcing the cycle of gloom and making moderately bad economic news seem like Armageddon. A decline of 0.5 percent in British GDP in a quarter should not make an already depressed the United Kingdom's stock market fall a further 5 percent.

Systemically unstable, but highly interconnected, the global financial system is accelerating the effect of news that the world could enter a simultaneous recession into a potential cataclysmic disaster.

G7 governments, genuflecting to the now disgraced titans of modern finance and the pet market theorists who supported them, have permitted, over the past 15 years, the creation of a shadow international financial system.

This system consists of what are essentially gambling chips, such as credit derivatives, options, swaps, contracts for difference and stock lending for short selling. These are used by a vast global hedge fund industry to bet on movements of prices in the first financial system - shares, currencies, interest rates and commodity prices.

But the tail now wags the dog. The size of the movements on Friday is only explicable in terms of hedge fund activity; funds in difficulty trying to clear their balance sheets and healthy funds making hay on the price movements, both exacerbating the situation.

It's mayhem out there, so much so that financial speculation may turn recession into slump. The G7 governments must consider taking coordinated action about regulating the pricing and trading of all forms of derivatives. Hedge funds should be licensed only if they trade in assets in government licensed exchanges. The element of gambling should be taken out of the system.

This will raise fundamental issues about the business models of many banks, which have become dependent on profits from the shadow financial system. This cannot continue.

To get banks back on a normal footing, governments will have to support them with more than capital. They are going to have to insure and guarantee debt if credit is to flow again.

All this is crucial for the UK. We have a very large financial sector compared to the size of our economy - a mega Iceland - and so are heavily exposed to both the destructive shadow second financial system and to banking's bust business model. We could find our entire real economy being shaped by these titanic and irrational moves in currencies and share prices. This crisis is moving into a dangerous new phase.

译文: 停止股市中的博弈

伦敦指数(FTSE)下跌了5%,从1971年有浮动汇率开始,英镑兑换美元的汇率在这指数下跌最厉害的一天里崩塌了,油价则已经处于了一直自由下跌的状态,亚洲市场几近股市恐慌。在这个双休日里所发生的事情使人哑然失声。

当然,在实体经济里的确是存在问题的,但是市场的一些举措太过激烈,他们是在增强繁荣的周期,但却使一些对不良经济恰如其分的报道变得好似世界末日。英国一个季度的国内生产总值(GDP)下降了0.5%,而这不会让已然萧条的英国股市再度猛降5%。

体制不稳定,高度的互相关联,全球经济体系正在加快一个讯息的影响,也就是世界会同时进入经济萧条并有可能会面对巨变性灾难

世界七大工业国(下称G7)屈服于现在已经衰败的现代金融业巨头以及那些曾经支持他们的宠物市场理论家,在过去的十五年里,他们让一个国际金融体系的萌芽产生了。

这个体系的内涵其本质都是博弈的筹码,例如信用衍生品,买卖特权,一些交易,差额合同和短期出售的股票贷款。这些都是由一个大型全球避险型基金为了就初始金融体系——股票,货币,利率和日用品价格的价位浮动博弈所使用的。

但是现在事实却都本末倒置。唯一能解释周五如此巨大下跌幅度的就是避险基金的行为,陷入困境的基金尝试要清除他们的资产负债表,而运作良好的基金则是打算在价位浮动上大捞一笔,而这二者都使得情况更加的恶化。

这是一种蓄意的谋害,并且相当的恶劣,以至于金融投机也许会从不景气转入暴跌。G7政府必须考虑采取同样的措施来规范定价和各类信用衍生品的贸易。除非是在政府认证的交易中进行资产交易,否则避险基金必须得到认证。博弈的成分必须从这个体系中剔除。

 这会引起一些关于很多银行的商业模型的基本原则的辩论,因为这些原则都是由该体系中的利润来决定的。这样的事情不能就此延续下去。

为了把银行带会原有的轨道,政府不仅仅会在资金上支持他们,如果信贷仍然浮动,政府会担保债务。

对英国来说,这一切都是至关紧要的。和我们的经济规模相比,我们有一个非常巨大的财政部门——一个冰岛——并且是暴露在毁灭性的第二金融体系和银行失败的商业模型之下。我们可以发现我们整个实体经济都是由这些巨头,货币无理性的变动和股价来定型的。此次危机正在向一个危险的新时期迈进。