The national average price for single-family homes roughly doubled every 10 years between 1940 and 2000, appreciating at a rate of 6 to 7 percent a year. Thus, the trend-line values for a median single-family home that sold for about 3000 dollars in 1940 would have been 6000 in 1950 , 12,000 in 1960 , 24000 in 1970 , 48,000 in 1980 , 96,000 in 1990 , and nearly 200,000 in 2000 . Actual values for this hypothetical home have come close to this trend .
The main exception to the proceeding rule was during the depressed 1930-1940 period . In real estate , the 3000 median-priced single-family home in 1940 compares with a value of nearly 50,000 in 1930 . Using a similar relationship to 1930-1950 over the next two decades would imply that the 190,000 single family home in 2000 would go for 120,000 in 2010 and 240000 in 2020 . Housing appreciation would , in effect , go in reverse for a decade , specifically ,the coming decade . The potential for a 35 percent loss in real estate is disquieting to most people , but in a 1930s type environment , this loss will be substantially less than the likely losses on stocks .
The seemingly uniform type of appreciation took place in very different ways over three distinct time frames . These were the war and postwar period between 1940 and 1970 , the inflationary period between 1970 and mid-1980s , and the excess period between the mid-1980s and 2000 and beyond .
译文:
历史地看待美国房市（之一）
从1940年到2000年，国内单户住宅平均价格差不多每十年翻一番，即每年增长6到7个百分点。如此一来，用市值趋势线可以推出，一处1940年市值3,000美元的中型单户住宅到了1950年市值为6,000美元，1960年为12,000美元，1970年为24,000美元，1980年为48,000美元，1990年为96,000美元，到了2000年，其市值已近200,000美元，而此处虚拟的住宅其实际市值变化线与此趋势线非常之接近。
在1930-1940年的大萧条时期，市值趋势线被打破，这算是极个别情况了。当时，一处中等价格的单户住宅如果在1940年市值3,000美元的话，1930年其市值接近50,000美元。将1930-1950的规律推而广之，其随后的20年将会暗示2000年市值190,000美元的单户住宅在2010年市值为120,000美元，而在2020年市值将为240,000美元。房价上涨行情每十年将会翻转一次，确切的说是在之后的十年。房价跌幅有可能高达35%，很多人对此将忧心忡忡，可是，在30年代的大形势下，投资房市比投资股市损失小的多。
促使产生上述房价上涨表面一致性的各个方式差别很大，历史上有三个明显的时期，其分别是：1940年到1970年的战时与战后时期，1970年到80年代中期的通货时期，80年代中期到2000年及其以后的过剩时期。