Kindle正一步步蚕食着长达550年的图书、报刊等传统印刷品市场，欲将成为出版行业的“颠覆者”。
文 胡一林
“它从概念提出时就存在诸多瑕疵，设计更是极其糟糕。”作为随时阅读的终端设备，亚马逊Kindle还未正式面市就遭到苹果公司CEO乔布斯的炮轰。
“现在都已经没有人看书了，想借阅读器发威不可思议”、“它的模样老的像从上世纪70年代研究所里爬出来的”、“用户不会吃饱撑得付出399美元”，类似的质疑伴随着Kindle的推出从未停息过。
然而，Kindle在2007年11月首次发售时，五个半小时内被抢购一空，“一机难求”的局面持续了整整18个月；因为断货，eBay上的二手Kindle价格比新机还高出近50美元。2008年，其总销售量近50万台，与iPod刚面市的年销量相匹敌。
经济危机的眼下，亚马逊在网站上牛气地通告：“要得到这个价格不菲的小玩意儿，你需在付款后等待2个月，海外销售则欠奉。”
今年3月，新版本Kindle2刚推出，就备受美国媒体热捧。透过火爆的表象人们发现，两年时光里，Kindle正一步步蚕食着长达550年的图书、报刊等传统印刷品市场，欲将成为出版行业的“颠覆者”。
质疑下的“图书界iPod ”
虽然Kindle有各种优势，但是面对阅读变革，很多人还是保持怀疑。
跟铅笔厚度一样薄、重约280克、外部尺寸与平装书一样；只能显示黑白双色、仅一份报纸份量的十分之一，最主要的按键也只有“上一页”和“下一页”两个。功能简单、界面单一，这是Kindle2的特色。
但它却可存储1500本书，并能朗读保存在其内的文字；而不借助电脑、随时随地的免费无线接入，又帮助人们真正实现了书籍和报刊的“按需阅读”。
美国《商业周刊》撰文称，“Kindle2真正妙处在于其创新服务。”据了解，最新发布的Kindle2拥有者可随时随地购买23万本图书，订阅期刊和博客，只要是亚马逊书单里的，从浏览、订阅到购买阅读，时间不超过60秒，而内容的定价仅为图书原价的3-4折。
值得一提的是，Kindle2的“轻声同步”功能，使得它能在阅读上与手机实现同步。用户在手机上阅读到任何一个地方，在Kindle2上可接着往下看，其充电一次可使用两周。
Kindle深深抓住了那些习惯在各种环境中手捧书本的各色人群。摩根大通分析师伊姆兰-可汗在一份报告中称，Kindle的成功堪与苹果在音乐播放器取得的成功相媲美。《新闻周刊》杂志称之为“图书界的iPod”。因为音频朗读功能，美国作协甚至担心其会对美国有声书市场造成很大破坏。
市场分析机构Collins Stewart的分析师桑迪普-阿瓦加尔发布的报告显示，今年Kindle的营收将增长3倍，达到2.56亿美元。2012年，将增至16亿美元，其销量也将达到250万部。
然而，有人对其高达360美元的售价表示担心。“我宁愿花350美元去买一个上网本。”
“用户必须购买亚马逊的内容，这种设置的限制可能会让用户反戈。”有分析师也不看好Kindle的前景。
其中，最多的反对者认为Kindle的最大挑战是“人们捧着书本读的感觉”， 随处看书很不可思议，就好比在中国火爆一时的电子杂志，最终人们还是觉得翻着的纸张有感觉。
实体图书消亡？
一旦人们大量通过屏幕阅读，整个传统出版业必将爆发革命。
海滩上，一端庄少女正享受着徐徐的海风，书在其耳中继续；早餐时，妻子在厨房忙碌，丈夫像往常一样坐在桌前看《纽约时报》，只是他手里拿得是Kindle的“纸张”。这两幅场景是亚马逊Kindle2的新广告画面。
亚马逊CEO贝索斯从一开始就不曾把Kindle看作是一款数码产品，“那是一本真正的书，赋予使用者最真实的阅读质感，让人们忘记自己盯着的只是一块6英寸屏幕。”
Kindle存储的千余本书，最终改变了时间，“在人们有阅读需求的时候，有效的利用了时间，这是其最大的魅力，也是其价值360美元的最大筹码。”国内分析师表示。
美国网络杂志Slate主编雅各布·威斯伯格撰文称，“Kindle将改变这个世界。”
花旗投资研究一分析师称，在传统出版业，50万已是一个惊人的数字。当下，一本书销量达5万册就能登上排行榜，而一本杂志只要卖上10万册就能获取巨大影响力。
有观察家预言，随着Kindle侵入，一旦人们大量通过屏幕阅读，纸的需求量也将急剧减少,实体印刷图书将走向消亡，而整个传统出版业必将爆发革命。
“造纸和印刷的趁早改行，这也将使得森林和植被得以更好的保护。”有博主如此戏谑。
实际上，早在通过PC和互联网阅读时，就曝出“实体图书消亡”论。但因糟糕的阅读体验，最终不被用户所认可。
对于图书发行商而言，发行环节将大大被精简，甚至可能将不再需要发行商。有消息称，亚马逊正准备与曾写过《肖申克的救赎》的恐怖悬疑小说大师——史蒂芬·金等畅销书作家直接签约，未来前者可能成为畅销书的唯一发行人。
如此一来，这将节省高昂的印刷与渠道成本，亚马逊则大赚。对于创作者，无纸化阅读可让作品更容易获取，大大缩短了作者与读者之间的距离，这也将促使文学爱好者和文字需求者们从纸介质向数码介质迁移。
亚马逊的“终端图谋”
在线数字出版平台，这才是亚马逊的最大图谋。
从表面看，贝索斯只是推出一款很受欢迎的数码设备，但实际上他正借助Kindle2试图引爆一颗更大的“炸弹”。
今年2月，亚马逊宣布将对第三方手机开放自己的电子书库平台，并推出具有Kindle功能的手机软件，受到许可的手机能够像Kindle一样获取亚马逊的各类书籍和报刊资源并阅读。
显然，这将极大拓宽亚马逊的数字发行渠道，并拉动Kindle2的销售。50万台Kindle的销售量意味着潜在的50万的电子发行量，“借助亚马逊强大的图书与客户资源，由网上书城开始，从销售链条逐渐上移至‘出版’这一关键原点的在线数字出版平台，这才是亚马逊的最大图谋。”有国内分析师对《英才》记者表示。
《福布斯》也发表文章强调，亚马逊为更多的设备提供内容无疑是明智而又必须之举。“如果Kindle真的取代了印刷图书，作为图书出版商的许多价值也将不复存在。作者和编辑可能要以另外的方式重新组合，亚马逊本身可能会成为最大的出版商……”
可以说，kindle作为终端，成为隐藏在亚马逊竞争背后的核心。亚马逊良好的内容，需要借助终端找一个落地点，然后提供周边服务，并向所有终端开放，最终图谋数字出版。
然而“阅读”这个需求能否撑起一个新的终端市场？有人认为，如把Kindle的功能集中在原来的终端如手机上，亚马逊必将元气大伤。
当然，在阅读器市场，Kindle自然也不乏对手。比Kindle早推出三年的索尼公司第一款电子书阅读器eBook也已卖出30万台。目前索尼已与Google达成协议，其电子书阅读器可访问Google逾50万本电子图书。索尼CEO霍华德-斯金格希望其市场规模年内翻番，以挑战Kindle的霸主地位。而三星也称将在6月在韩国推出触摸屏电子书阅读器，与之竞争，这些都不敢让亚马逊小觑。
在中国，因为Kindle模式将大大冲击传统出版业的利益，必将受到多方的联合打压。
看来，Kindle要在国内盛行，尚待时日。
标签：
胡一林,
Kindle
译文:
Subverter of Publishing Industry
Kindle is step by step nibbling away the market of as long as 550 years of traditionally printed books, newspapers and magazines, wishing to be the “subverter” of the publishing industry.
By: Hu Yilin
Ever since the inception of the concept there has been a lot of flaws, and the design is extremely terrible.” Before its official launch, Amazon Kindle had already received the bombardment from Apple CEO Steve Jobs.
Doubtful words such as “Nobody reads now, trying to use reading device to show power is inconceivable”, “Its old look is like someone crawling out of a research institute of 70s in the last century”, “Users having been so stuffed wouldn’t pay US$ 399,” have been continuously coming up following the launch of Kindle.
However, when Kindle was first put on the market in November 2007, it was completely sold out within five and a half hours, and created a situation of “hard to get one” lasting for exactly 18 months; because of the supply shortage, second hand Kindle was selling at a price of nearly US$ 50 more than that of the new one at eBay. In 2008, its total sales amounted to nearly 500,000 sets, matching the annual sales of iPod that had just entered the market.
At the time of economic crisis now, Amazon arrogantly put out a notice on the website: “If you want to get this expensive widget, you must wait for 2 months after making payment, overseas sales are not entertained.”
The new version Kindle2 received overwhelming reception from the American media immediately after its launch in March this year. Judging by that, people discovered that within two years Kindle is step by step nibbling away the market of as long as 550 years of traditionally printed books, newspapers and magazines, wishing to be the “subverter” of the publishing industry.
Questionable "iPod of Book Industry"
Kindle has various advantages, but many people remained doubtful when confronted with the change of reading habit.
The characteristics of Kindle2 are: its thickness is like that of a pencil, weighing about 280 grams, outside dimension is equivalent to a paperback, showing only black and white, equivalent to one tenth of a copy of newspaper in weight, with only “previous page” and “next page” these two main push buttons. It has simple functions and a single interface, and that's the special feature of Kindle2.
However, it can store 1500 copies of books in its memory, and recite the words stored in it; and can have free wireless connection anytime without any help from a computer, thus assisting people in realizing “reading what you need” in regards to books and magazines.
Business Week America writes, “Kindle2 really goes for innovative service”. The latest Kindle2 owners can reportedly at any time purchase 230,000 books, subscribe to weeklies and blogs (as long as they are on the Amazon booklist) in less than 60 seconds, starting from preview, order and purchase; and the set price for the content is only 3% to 4% of the original price of the books.
What is worth mentioning is the "Whispersync" functionality of Kindle2 that enables it to synchronize with mobile phone. Users reading to any particular spot on the mobile phone can pick it up on Kindke2 to carry on the reading. Every charge of its battery can last for 2 weeks.
Kindle has a firm grip on those people from all walks of life who are used to carrying a book in different environments. IPMorgan Chase analyst Imran Khan said in a report, that Kindle’s success is comparable to that of Apple's music broadcasting device iPod. Newsweek called it “iPod library”. Writer’s Guild of America is even worried that the audio reciting functionality of Kindle could cause great damage to the American market of sonant books.
Market analysis organization Collins Stewart’s analyst Sandeep Aggarwal said in a report that, the sales of Kindle trebles this year, reaching US$256 million. It will reach US$ 1.6 billion in 2012 with the sales of 2.5 million.
But some people are worried about the selling price which is as high as US$ 360. “I prefer to spend US$ 350 on a notebook to surf the net.”
“Users might go against the restriction that content must be purchased from Amazon.” Some analysts also played down their view on Kindle’s prospects.
Among them, most of the objectors reckon “the feeling of people holding books” is the greatest challenge for Kindle. Reading anywhere is inconceivable, just like the electronic magazines that was once so crazy in China, but eventually people still preferred the feeling of touching the paper pages.
The End of Text Books？
Once people do a lot of reading via the screen, the whole traditional publishing industry would meet the onslaught of revolution.
On “Shanghai Beach”, a decent girl is enjoying the gentle sea breeze, the reading goes on in her ears; during breakfast time, the wife is busy in the kitchen while the husband is as usual reading New York Times at the breakfast table, only this time he has Kindle’s “papers” in his hand. These are the two scenarios depicted in the advertisement of Amazon Kindle2.
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos did not treat Kindle as a digital product from the very beginning, “That’s a real book that gives users the truest sense of the quality of reading, and lets them forget that what they are gazing at is only a 6-inch screen,” he said.
Thousands of books stored in Kindle eventually change time, “People can make use of time at the time when they need to read, this is its greatest charm and its highest bargaining chip for the price of US$ 360,” analysts at home voiced their view.
American internet magazine Slate Editor-in-Chief Jacob Weisberg wrote, “Kindle will change the world.”
An analyst from City Bank Investment Research said 500,000 is an astonishing figure in the traditional publishing industry. Currently, a book that sells 50,000 copies can get on the top list, and a magazine with only the sales of 100,000 can have enormous influence.
Observers predict, once people do a lot of on-screen reading following the invasion of Kindle, demand for paper will drastically drop, printed text books will be doomed, and a revolution will erupt in the whole traditional publishing industry.
One blogger teasingly said, “Papermaking and printing industries might as well pack up as soon as possible, and forest and vegetation can be better protected.”
As a matter of fact, reading via PC and internet earlier on had already popped up the talk of “text books extinction”. But because of the lousy reading experience, it was not approved by the users at last.”
In regards to books distributors, the distribution process will be simplified extensively, and even to the extent of doing it without the distributors. It was reported that Amazon is about to go direct and sign agreement with Stephen King, author of the horror and suspense filled novel “The Shawshank Redemption”, and the former may be the only publisher of fast selling books in future.
As such, this will save the cost of the expensive printing and channeling, but is a huge profit to Amazon. As for creators, paperless reading makes it more readily available, shortening the distance between writers and readers, and effecting a migration of literature lovers and people in need of text from the paper medium to the digital medium.
“Terminal Conspiracy” of Amazon
Online Digital publishing platform is truly the biggest conspiracy of Amazon.
Outwardly, Bezos only launched a very popular digital device, but is actually trying to make use of Kindle2 to detonate a bigger “bomb”
In February this year, Amazon announced that it would open up its electronic library platform to the third party mobile phones, and launch software possessing the Kindle functionality; mobile phones with approval can obtain various book and magazine resources from Amazon and read, just like Kindle.
Obviously, this will extensively expand Amazon’s digital distribution channels, and promote the sales of Kindle2. The sales of 500,000 sets of Kindle implies the potential of 500,000 electronic circulations, and “by means of Amazon’s formidable book and customer resources, starting from bookstore online, gradually moving from sales link to “publish” this crucial link on digital publishing online platform, this is actually the biggest conspiracy of Amazon.” Domestic analysts expressed their views to “Elite” reporter.
Forbes also published articles stressing that providing content for more facilities is undoubtedly a wise and essential move by Amazon. “If Kindle really replaces printed books, the many values of publishers will be out of existence. Writers and editors may have to reorganize under a different mode, and Amazon itself may become the biggest publisher……”
It can be said that, Kindle, as a terminal, becomes the core that is hidden behind the Amazon’s competition. The fine content of Amazon has to make use of a terminal to find a landing spot and provide the surrounding service, and then open up to all terminals, conspiring digital publishing eventually.
But can the need of “reading” support a new terminal market? Some people reckon that, if Kindle’s functionality is concentrated on the original terminal such as mobile phone, Amazon will be extensively weakened.
Of course, Kindle is not short of competitors in the market of reading devices. 3 years ahead of Kindle, Sony introduced its first reading device eBook that sold 300,000 sets. Sony has currently reached an agreement with Google, allowing its electronic reading device to visit Google’s electronic books of more than 500,000 copies. Sony CEO Howard Stringer hoped that their sales would be doubled within the year, in order to challenge hegemony of Kindle. Samsung also said they would launch a touch screen electronic reading device in South Korea this June in order to compete. All these are not underestimated by Amazon.
In China, given that Kindle could greatly impact on the interest of the traditional publishing industry, there would certainly be a ombined effort to counteract.
It seems, the day of Kindle getting popular in China is still far off.