Since the start of the year, the invincible aura surrounding the world's biggest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – has evaporated as the combined value of their stocks has tumbled by about 65 per cent.
The collapse in these markets, which had risen dramatically since they were first grouped together as the Brics in 2001 by Goldman Sachs, has raised serious questions about the worth of combining them for an investment portfolio.
With commodity prices falling and the world economy contracting sharply, some analysts suggest the changing landscape makes it less useful to put the four economies into one bucket.
Arnab Das, head of emerging markets research and strategy at Dresdner Kleinwort, says: “I always thought the Bric concept, though a great marketing term of enormous franchise value, a bit artificial – and for obvious reasons: the four countries are so different, and really share in common only their continental geographic scale and large economic size.”
Mr Das says the differences have become more apparent as the financial crisis has deepened.
Most notably, Russia's equity market has suffered the sharpest falls of the four this year. Its main stock exchanges have seen dramatic sell-offs since the summer when first political concerns over its invasion of Georgia and then worries over the health of its banks prompted investors to exit the market. As a commodity producer, the fall in the oil price has also undermined sentiment.
Brazil, the other commodity producer of the four, has also suffered with its currency dropping about 50 per cent in the past three months as the weakening oil price and strengthening dollar prompted frantic unwinding of positions as investors sought refuge in only the safest assets, such as US Treasuries.
Although Chinese and Indian stock markets have seen sharp falls this year, their currencies have not suffered in the same way as they are more tightly managed. The Russians have also intervened to shore up the rouble.
Mr Das says: “This differentiation suggests trading emerging markets and the Brics in particular should be from a relative value perspective, rather than an absolute return perspective.”
Dalinc Ariburnu, global head of emerging markets at Deutsche Bank, agrees the Brics are in many ways different animals.
Significantly, he expects the two commodity producers, Brazil and Russia, will see much lower growth rates next year than China and India.
He forecasts growth in Russia to drop sharply to 3.5 per cent in 2009 (possibly lower if commodity prices continue to fall and the banking system does not stabilise) and Brazil's growth to be nearly cut in half to 2.9 per cent next year compared with 2007. In contrast, he forecasts China's growth at 7.6 per cent next year and India's at 6 per cent.
The deepening financial and economic crisis has also prompted some analysts to look more closely at other emerging market groups, which they consider more useful amid the current uncertainty.
For example, the Sics – systemically important countries – are seen by some as a more appropriate group to invest in because these countries are deemed too important to fail, setting them apart from other economies.
Mr Das says: “I would put the Brics plus Mexico, South Africa, Turkey and South Korea in the group generally.”
Alexander Tarver, products specialist in emerging markets at HSBC Global Asset Management, agrees investors should approach each country differently because of the volatility.
HSBC Global Asset Management, which set up the first Bric investment fund in 2004, has four separate managers for each country. They report to an overall head based in London.
译文:
金砖四国各有投资方式
对世界最大的四大新兴经济体--巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国所产生的不可抗拒的魅力，自年初开始已随着他们的总体股价缩水65%而烟消云散了。
2001年，高盛首次将四国称为“金砖四国”，使得股价一度上扬。这些市场的突然崩盘，使人们开始质疑把四国合起来看作为一个投资组合的价值所在。
随着大宗商品价格下降，全球经济大幅萎缩，一些分析家指出市场状况的多变使得把四国视为一个整体变得没有多大意义。
Dresdner Kleinwort新兴市场的研究和战略的主管Arnab Das说：“我一直认为金砖四国这个概念，尽管是有重要的特许权价值的市场营销术语，但还是有点人为因素在里面。原因很明显，这四个国家非常得不同，唯一的共同点就是他们地域广袤，经济体庞大。”
Das先生说，随着金融危机日益加深，四国之间的差异就愈发明显。
最显而易见的是，俄罗斯股市在今年遭受了四国当中最严重的冲击。自今天夏天开始，俄罗斯侵入格鲁吉亚一度引发了对该国政局的担忧，紧接着又是对该国银行体系的担忧，使得投资者纷纷撤出该市场，导致主要证券交易所大规模低价抛售。作为大宗商品生产国，油价的下跌也影响了市场人气。
巴西作为四国中的另一个大宗商品生产国也遭受损失，其货币在过去三个月由于受油价走跌和美元走强的影响而贬值50%左右，投资者纷纷抛售席位，转而寻求唯一安全的资产，比如美国国库券。
中国和印度股市虽然今年经历了大幅下挫，然后两国的货币因受到严格监管而未受影响。俄罗斯也已经干预支撑卢布。
Das说：“各国间的差异说明投资新兴市场尤其是金砖四国，应该考虑相对价值，而不是考虑绝对回报。”
德意志银行新兴市场全球主管Dalinc Ariburnu认同说，金砖四国在很多方面是不同的。
他预期，尤其是巴西和俄罗斯两个产品制造国在来年的经济增长率将低于中国和印度。
他预计，2009年俄罗斯经济增长率将急剧下滑3.5%（如果商品价格持续下降、银行体系依旧不稳定的话，可能会更低），明年巴西经济增长率则与2007年相比下跌近半成，达到2.9%。相反，他预期明年中国增速为7.6%，印度为6%。
金融危机和经济危机的加深，身处现在动荡局势中，一些分析家夫认为把目光投向更多其他新兴市场群体将更有用。
比如说，Sics--体制上重要的国家，则被认为是更适合投资的国家，因为这些国家的重要性使得人们它们不会垮台，有别于其他国家。
Das先生说：“通常来说，我会把金砖四国、墨西哥、南非、土耳其和韩国看作一个群体。”
汇丰全球资产管理公司新兴市场产品专家Alexander Tarver认为由于市场的多变性，投资者应区别对待每个国家。
汇丰全球资产管理公司在2004年建立了第一个金砖四国投资基金，该公司在四个国家有各自的管理部门，他们都向驻伦敦总部汇报。