经济信心坚定不移

读者: 1466    发布时间: 2008

原文: Economic confidence unshaken

Chinese stood in silence and grief on Monday afternoon to mourn the tens of thousands of victims of the worst earthquake in decades, but their sorrows didn't shake their confidence in China's economy, said analysts.

The stock market opened sharply lower after the 8.0-magnitude quake on May 12, but the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was down merely 0.6 percent in the following five trading days, closing at 3,604.76 points on Monday.

Securities analyst Ying Jianzhong attributed the unexpectedly stable performance of Chinese shares to the anticipation that the quake would not alter China's overall economic direction.

"The negative effect on the stock market is diminishing," said Ying.

He noted that as relief and recovery work started, demand for daily necessities, medicine, steel and cement had driven up companies in those sectors.

The quake would not shake overall confidence in the economy; therefore, the government would maintain its goals of preventing overheating and curbing inflation, economist Wang Xiaoguang told Xinhua in an interview on Monday.

"Unlike the September 11 terrorist attack, the catastrophe has not aroused fears about the national economy, as it was a natural disaster caused by force majeure and limited to a small area," said Wang.

The People's Bank of China, the central bank, announced last Wednesday a move to provide 55 billion yuan ($7.85 billion) in refinancing for commercial banks and rural cooperatives in quake regions of Sichuan and Gansu, in order to increase their liquidity and ability to support disaster relief and reconstruction.

It also allowed banks in six cities that were hardest hit by the quake to temporarily keep their deposit reserve ratio at the prevailing level, while lenders in other regions must raise the ratio on Tuesday to curb excess liquidity.

"Those measures were just temporary support policies for disaster-hit regions and did not point to any changes in the government's tight monetary policy," said Wang.

China has controlled money supply to rein in rising prices and curbed loans to cool sizzling fixed-asset investment that drove the country's double-digit growth in gross domestic product (GDP).

Global investment banks have predicted a much smaller economic impact from the quake than from the snow storms in January and February.

The biggest loss caused by the quake was that of life and property, but it was not included in the calculation of GDP growth, said Wang.

The 8.0-magnitude quake that struck southwest China's Sichuan Province on May 12 had killed 34,073 and injured 245,108 others as of noon on Monday.

Losses were estimated at 67 billion yuan in the province, said Vice Minister of Industry and Information Xi Guohua at a press conference on Monday.

Meanwhile, Wang said post-disaster reconstruction could stimulate investment and boost GDP growth in the longer term.

The quake could cut annual national GDP growth by 0.2 percentage point due to slackened industrial output and consumption in the quake zone, CITIC Securities chief macro-economic analyst Zhu Jianfang estimated.

"Economic growth and company profits might suffer from the quake in the second quarter but resume normal performance in the third and fourth quarters, or even rebound sharply in some sectors," said Zhu.

译文: 经济信心坚定不移

     周一下午,全体中国人民立于安静和沉痛的气氛之中,为几万名在这次数十年来最严重的地震中遇难的同胞默哀,但是他们的悲痛被没有动摇中国对于经济的信心,分析家说。

     五月十二日的八级大地震后,股市开盘急剧降低,但是在接下来的五天内,基准的上证综合指数仅仅降低了0.6个百分点,在周一以3,604.76点收盘。

     证券分析人士应健中将这次出乎意料的稳定的中国股市,归功于对地震不会改变中国整体经济方向的期待。

    “对股市的负面影响正在减少,”应健中说。

     他强调,随着救援和整修工作的展开,对日常必需品、药物、钢材和水泥需求已经推动了这些领域的公司。
     地震不会动摇经济方面的整体信心;因此,政府会维持目标,防止通货膨胀过热并加以控制,在周一的一次采访中经济学家王晓光告诉新华社。

     “不同于911恐怖袭击,这次灾难并没有引起对国家经济的悲观,因为这是由不可抗力引起的自然灾害,而且局限在一个小的区域内,”王说。

     中国人民银行--中央银行上周三宣布了一项动议,再次为四川和甘肃灾区的商业银行和农村合作社提供资金550亿元(78.5亿美元),为了增加他们支持赈灾和重建能力和流动性。

     它还允许受灾最严重的六个城市的银行,暂时保持现行水平的储备金率,而其它地区的出贷方必须在礼拜二提高准备金率以便遏制过度流通。

    “这些措施只是为受灾地区提供的暂时支持政策,并非针对政府紧缩的货币政策发生的任何改变”,王说。

     中国已经控制了货币的供应,限制价格上涨,遏制贷款以冷却过热的固定资产投资,这些投资曾推动了国民生产总值两位数的增长。

     全球投资银行已预测,地震对经济的影响比一二月份雪灾带来的冲击要小的很。

     地震造成的最大损失是生命和财产,但国民生产总值增长的计算并未涉及这些,王说。

     八级大地震于五月12日袭击了中国西南的四川省,到周一中午已造成34,073人死亡和245,18受伤。

     该省损失预计有670亿元,周一的一个记者招待会上,信息产业部副部长奚国华如是说。

     与此同时,王说灾后重建可能会在更长一段时间内刺激投资,促进国民生产总值的增长。

     由于灾区工业产量和消费的削弱,地震会使国民生产总值年均增长减少0.2个百分点,中国国际信托投资公司证券主管宏观经济分析师诸建芳预测说。

     “经济增长和企业利润在第二季度可能会受到地震影响,但是将在三四极度恢复正常,或者甚至在某些领域会强力反弹”,诸说。